| North♠A4♥AQ873♦Q63 ♣QJ4 |
||
| West♠Q6 ♥KT9♦JT954 ♣A75 |
East♠KJ98♥J65♦AK72 ♣93 |
|
| South♠T7532♥42♦8 ♣KT862 |
Analysis
If North opens up 1♥ I think everyone will just "Pass". South has no values and the Opponents just don't have a suit good enough to bid! What happens if North opens 1NT? South will transfer to ♠ and "Pass". Unfortunately they are a level too high. You make 7 tricks only in either major. So I am going to give 1♥ the win here. You stay LOW in the bidding. To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!
Sunday, May 2, 2021
Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)
Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.
Skip to the table!
After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1♥ so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1♥ vs 1NT
How will I analyze this?
I started by analyzing open 1NT vs opening 1♠. I have the results I have looked at so far in this post:
1NT vs 1♠
I am continuing the fun by looking at another 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP but this time five ♥ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website:
http://playbridge.com/
You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.
So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♥, two or three ♠, two or three ♦, two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.
Double Dummy?
Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down. On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.64 Hands?
Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer? No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♥ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♥ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.How will Opener show their values if they open 1♥?
Good question. I need to be consistent. If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience. If they have 15 HCP I will just have them rebid 2NT if Responder responds in a new suit at the 2 level to show 10 or more High Card Values. They might miss a few games if Responder has 10 or 11 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 10 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience. I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience. If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit. If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time. This is the table that will hold all the results.Summary - Open 1NT or 1♥?
| Number of Hands Studied | Which wins? | Percentage | 23 | 1♥ - 4 1NT - 5 Doesn't Matter - 14 | 1♥ - 17.39% 1NT - 21.74% Doesn't Matter - 60.87% |
|---|
| Hands | Analysis | Verdict | Hand 1
|
Shouldn't matter. Either way the partnership will get to a small slam and make. For more information click here. | Doesn't matter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hand 2
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 2 | My verdict for 2 | |||||||||
Hand 3
|
1NT gets N/S to the best possible place -- either in 1NT themselves or 2♥ by East. For details you can check out this post: Hand 3 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 4
|
Shouldn't matter what West opens. North has a VERY strong distributional hand and won't be stopped with either bid! | Doesn't matter. | |||||||||
Hand 5
|
Even with the bad trump break (East has FIVE of them) N/S can make a game. If North opens 1NT they will not find their best fit. | 1♥ | |||||||||
Hand 6
|
I think either way West will force to a slam. Probably not the grand but opening either way won't help. | Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 7
|
N/S will get to play in 3NT no matter what they open. North has enough to bid at the 2 level and that is all South will need to bid game themselves. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 8
|
West will play in 1NT regardless of what they open. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 9
|
Opening 1♥ will get N/S to 2♥ -- even if East makes a Take Out Double. Opening 1NT gets N/S to 2♠ since South will transfer. ♥ plays a trick better. | 1♥ | |||||||||
Hand 10
|
1NT gets E/W to the best possible place (♠) at a much safer level. For details you can check out this post: Hand 10 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 11
|
Either will get South (not North!) to 3NT. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 12
|
NT plays better than ♥ so that is the winning bid. If you open 1NT you do not find the ♥ fit which is a good contract but not the best. | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 13
|
No matter what N/S will reach 3NT -- which is where they belong. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 14
|
No matter what E/W will get to 1NT -- either by East if they open 1NT or West if they respond 1NT to East's open 1♥ bid. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 15
|
I think either way West will come in with their ♦ suit and N/S will stop bidding. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 16
|
1NT works best because you will bid your game that makes. For details you can check out this post: Hand 16 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 17
|
1♥ allows the partnership to stay LOW in the bidding -- which they need to on this hand. For details you can check out this post: Hand 17 | 1♥ | |||||||||
Hand 18
|
1NT gives the best chance of getting to the game that makes (3NT) and avoiding the game that goes down. For details you can check out this post: Hand 18 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 19
|
1♥ allows the bidding to remain low and stop in a makeable contract. For details you can check out this post: Hand 19 | 1♥ | |||||||||
Hand 20
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 20 | My verdict for 20 | |||||||||
Hand 21
|
I think either way N/S will end up in 2♠. If North opens 1NT, South will transfer and "Pass". If Norht opens 1♥ and rebids 1NT (like I said they would) then South will bid 1♠ followed by 2♠ showing a weak hand with a six card suit. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 22
|
South has a very strong hand. If they evaluate it properly I don't think East opening 1NT or 1♥ will make any difference. South will bid to the number of ♠ they feel they can make. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 23
|
West is going to get in there and bid that suit no matter what South opens. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 24
|
I think both opening bids will get you to a small slam in ♥. | Doesn't matter. | |||||||||
Hand 25
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 25 | My verdict for 25 | |||||||||
Hand 26
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 26 | My verdict for 26 | |||||||||
Hand 27
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 27 | My verdict for 27 | |||||||||
Hand 28
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 28 | My verdict for 28 | |||||||||
Hand 29
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 29 | My verdict for 29 | |||||||||
Hand 30
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 30 | My verdict for 30 | |||||||||
Hand 31
|
Either way N/S will get to 1NT. If South opens 1♥, North will respond 1NT and play it there. If South opens 1NT they will play it there. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 32
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 32 | My verdict for 32 | |||||||||
Hand 33
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 33 | My verdict for 33 | |||||||||
Hand 34
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 34 | My verdict for 34 | |||||||||
Hand 35
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 35 | My verdict for 35 | |||||||||
Hand 36
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 36 | My verdict for 36 | |||||||||
Hand 37
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 37 | My verdict for 37 | |||||||||
Hand 38
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 38 | My verdict for 38 | |||||||||
Hand 39
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 39 | My verdict for 39 | |||||||||
Hand 40
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 40 | My verdict for 40 | |||||||||
Hand 41
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 41 | My verdict for 41 | |||||||||
Hand 42
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 42 | My verdict for 42 | |||||||||
Hand 43
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 43 | My verdict for 43 | |||||||||
Hand 44
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 44 | My verdict for 44 | |||||||||
Hand 45
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 45 | My verdict for 45 | |||||||||
Hand 46
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 46 | My verdict for 46 | |||||||||
Hand 47
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 47 | My verdict for 47 | |||||||||
Hand 48
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 48 | My verdict for 48 | |||||||||
Hand 49
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 49 | My verdict for 49 | |||||||||
Hand 50
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 50 | My verdict for 50 | |||||||||
Hand 51
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 51 | My verdict for 51 | |||||||||
Hand 52
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 52 | My verdict for 52 | |||||||||
Hand 53
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 53 | My verdict for 53 | |||||||||
Hand 54
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 54 | My verdict for 54 | |||||||||
Hand 55
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 55 | My verdict for 55 | |||||||||
Hand 56
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 56 | My verdict for 56 | |||||||||
Hand 57
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 57 | My verdict for 57 | |||||||||
Hand 58
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 58 | My verdict for 58 | |||||||||
Hand 59
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 59 | My verdict for 59 | |||||||||
Hand 60
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 60 | My verdict for 60 | |||||||||
Hand 61
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 61 | My verdict for 61 | |||||||||
Hand 62
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 62 | My verdict for 62 | |||||||||
Hand 63
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This is where I put the analysis for hand 63 | My verdict for 63 | |||||||||
Hand 64
|
This is where I put the analysis for hand 64 | My verdict for 64 |
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major
Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.
Skip to the table!
After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1♥ so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1♥ vs 1NT
How will I analyze this?
I am starting by looking at 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP and five ♠ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website:
http://playbridge.com/
You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.
So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♠, two or three ♥, two or three ♦, two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.
Double Dummy?
Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down. On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.64 Hands?
Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer? No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♠ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♠ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.How will Opener show their values if they open 1♠?
Good question. I need to be consistent. If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience. I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience. If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit. If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time. This is the table that will hold all the results.Summary - Open 1NT or 1♠?
| Number of Hands Studied | Which wins? | Percentage | 25 | 1♠ - 12 1NT - 6 Doesn't Matter - 7 | 1♠ - 48.0% 1NT - 24.0% Doesn't Matter - 28.0% |
|---|
| Hands | Analysis | Verdict | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hand 1
|
Things do not work out well for N/S on this hand. They need East to come in with their ♥ suit and rescue them. That way East goes down in their contract rather than North. I thought East would come in over 1♠ for sure but await developments if North opened 1NT. However it seems that about the same number of people came into the bidding over both bids. So therefore it really doesn't matter what North opens, East will come in and rescue them. For details you can check out this post: Hand 1 | Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 2
|
This is a tough one. I think 3NT will be easier to play and Double Dummy there are only 9 tricks available in both 3NT and 4♥. So the ♥ game can go down. If East opens 1NT they will find their fit and play in 4♥. If East opens 1♠ it is tougher to find their ♥ fit.For details you can check out this post: Hand 2 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 3
|
If South opens 1NT most people don't have the tools to find their ♠ fit. both 3NT and 4♠ make with no overtricks. So 4♠ will score better. For details you can check out this post: Hand 3 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 4
|
I feel that West can always show their ♠ suit IF South competes over 1NT. But what if South does not? Then it is better to open 1♠.For details you can check out this post: Hand 4 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 5
|
Easier to get to 3NT if North opens 1NT.For details you can check out this post: Hand 5 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 6
|
♠ plays better.For details you can check out this post: Hand 6 | 1♠ | Hand 7
|
Better to open 1♠ because ♠ plays better if the Opponents don't come in and if they do come in you won't get too high.For details you can check out this post: Hand 7 | 1♠ | ||||||
Hand 8
|
I think either opening bid will get the partnership to 3NT.For details you can check out this post: Hand 8 | Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 9
|
I think opening 1NT will stop the partnership from getting too high.For details you can check out this post: Hand 9 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 10
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. That allows you to find the major suit fit without relying on the Opponents to come in and help you along.For details you can check out this post: Hand 10 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 11
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. It either doesn't matter what you open OR bidding 1♠ allows you to play the NT from a better side.For details you can check out this post: Hand 11 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 12
|
I think opening 1NT is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.For details you can check out this post: Hand 12 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 13
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.For details you can check out this post: Hand 13 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 14
|
I don't think it will matter what East opens. All roads lead to 3NT just in.For details you can check out this post: Hand 14 | Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 15
|
I think South is better off opening 1♠. They are less likely to get into trouble and E/W are less likely to find their fit.For details you can check out this post: Hand 15 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 16
|
I don't think it will really matter what West opens. They will easily find their ♠ fit over 1NT with Stayman. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 17
|
I don't think it will really matter what North opens. If they open 1♠ they find their fit but may get to the 3 level since North might invite. If North opens up 1NT and East overcalls 2♥ I feel that the suit is so good North will now bid 2♠. Since 9 tricks are easy to take it won't even matter if they are at the 2 or 3 level. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 18
|
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their game if East opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1NT.For details you can check out this post: Hand 18 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 19
|
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their best spot if South opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1♠.For details you can check out this post: Hand 19 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 20
|
I don't think it really matters what the opening bid is. E/W will get to 3NT and make the same number of tricks.For details you can check out this post: Hand 20 | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 21
|
I think opening 1NT wins on this hand. It helps N/S get to the best contract and stay low in the bidding.For details you can check out this post: Hand 21 | 1NT | |||||||||
Hand 22
|
I think opening 1♠ wins on this hand. It helps E/W get to the best fit.For details you can check out this post: Hand 22 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 23
|
Doesn't really matter what South opens. The partnership will end up in 1NT and realistically both sides take 8 tricks.For details you can check out this post: Hand 23 | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 24
|
1♠ works best here. It allows you to get to your last making contract.For details you can check out this post: Hand 24 | 1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 25
|
1NT works best here. It allows for the fact that East (or West) might come into the bidding and the Opponents will get too high OR it stops the N/S partnership from getting too high in their ♠ fit.For details you can check out this post: Hand 25 | 1NT |
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