Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major

Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.

Skip to the table!

After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1 so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1 vs 1NT

How will I analyze this?

I am starting by looking at 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP and five ♠ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website: http://playbridge.com/

You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.

So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♠, two or three , two or three , two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.

Double Dummy?

Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down.

On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.

64 Hands?

Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer?

No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♠ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♠ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.

How will Opener show their values if they open 1♠?

Good question. I need to be consistent.

If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience.

If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit.

If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time.

This is the table that will hold all the results.

Summary - Open 1NT or 1♠?



Number of Hands Studied Which wins? Percentage
25 1♠ - 12
1NT - 6
Doesn't Matter - 7
1♠ - 48.0%
1NT - 24.0%
Doesn't Matter - 28.0%




Hands Analysis Verdict
Hand 1

Dealer: North
None Vul
North
♠AQ754
J76
AQ
♣K42
West
♠KJ983
52
T82
♣J86
East
♠T
AKQT83
J653
♣T3
South
♠62
94
K974
♣AQ975
NS 4♣
NS 2♠
NS 1NT
NS 1
Things do not work out well for N/S on this hand. They need East to come in with their suit and rescue them. That way East goes down in their contract rather than North. I thought East would come in over 1♠ for sure but await developments if North opened 1NT. However it seems that about the same number of people came into the bidding over both bids. So therefore it really doesn't matter what North opens, East will come in and rescue them.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 1
Doesn't Matter
Hand 2

Dealer: East
N/S Vul
North
♠AT63
83
T86
♣T965
West
♠J2
AT954
K2
♣J743
East
♠Q9854
KQJ
AQ4
♣K8
South
♠K7
762
J9753
♣AQ2
EW 3NT
EW 3
EW 2♠
EW 2♣
EW 1
This is a tough one. I think 3NT will be easier to play and Double Dummy there are only 9 tricks available in both 3NT and 4. So the game can go down. If East opens 1NT they will find their fit and play in 4. If East opens 1♠ it is tougher to find their fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 2
1♠
Hand 3

Dealer: South
E/W Vul
North
♠Q43
8
AJ9432
♣QT3
West
♠AJ62
QT3
K7
♣A842
East
♠5
J97652
T86
♣J65
South
♠KT987
AK4
Q5
♣K97
NS 4♠
NS 3NT
NS 3
NS 2♣
EW 1
If South opens 1NT most people don't have the tools to find their ♠ fit. both 3NT and 4♠ make with no overtricks. So 4♠ will score better.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 3
1♠
Hand 4

Dealer: West
Both Vul
North
♠82
KJ76
QT6
♣KT63
West
♠KQT65
AT3
A4
♣QJ9
East
♠J973
Q985
53
♣852
South
♠A4
42
KJ9872
♣A74
EW 2♠
NS 3
NS 3♣
NS 1NT
EW 1
I feel that West can always show their ♠ suit IF South competes over 1NT. But what if South does not? Then it is better to open 1♠.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 4
1♠
Hand 5

Dealer: North
N/S Vul
North
♠AK752
Q6
K98
♣QJ2
West
♠T64
KT543
J
♣A763
East
♠J983
A9
Q32
♣K854
South
♠Q
J872
AT7654
♣T9
NS 3NT
NS 2
NS 1♠
EW 1♣
Easier to get to 3NT if North opens 1NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 5
1NT
Hand 6

Dealer: East
E/W Vul
North
♠4
AJT5
K9765
♣Q76
West
♠7653
862
4
♣KJ984
East
♠KQJ92
KQ9
AJ8
♣T5
South
♠AT8
743
QT32
♣A32
EW 3♠
EW 3
EW 2♣
NS 1NT
NS 1
♠ plays better.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 6
1♠
Hand 7

Dealer: South
Both Vul
North
♠74
J76
762
♣K8742
West
♠KQ9
82
QT843
♣QJT
East
♠852
AK953
K95
♣65
South
♠AJT63
QT4
AJ
♣A93
EW 2
EW 1NT
EW 2
NS 1♠
NS 2♣
Better to open 1♠ because ♠ plays better if the Opponents don't come in and if they do come in you won't get too high.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 7
1♠
Hand 8

Dealer: West
None Vul
North
♠84
A97532
QJ
♣963
West
♠AJ973
KQ
AK3
♣752
East
♠Q2
J864
T9865
♣AJ
South
♠KT65
T
742
♣KQT84
EW 4NT
EW 5
EW 3♠
EW 2
EW 1♣
I think either opening bid will get the partnership to 3NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 8
Doesn't Matter
Hand 9

Dealer: North
E/W Vul
North
♠KQT93
AJ6
KT
♣QJ3
West
♠AJ85
KQT
A87
♣864
East
♠6
9432
J943
♣KT92
South
♠742
875
Q652
♣A75
NS 2♠
NS 1NT
I think opening 1NT will stop the partnership from getting too high.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 9
1NT
Hand 10

Dealer: East
Both Vul
North
♠Q
Q87
K42
♣QJT765
West
♠T832
K53
J653
♣92
East
♠AKJ95
642
AT7
♣A4
South
♠764
AJT9
Q98
♣K83
EW 3♠
EW 2
EW 1NT
NS 3♣
NS 2
I think opening 1♠ is better. That allows you to find the major suit fit without relying on the Opponents to come in and help you along.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 10
1♠
Hand 11

Dealer: South
None Vul
North
♠T2
KJ864
Q9
♣A876
West
♠654
5
JT432
♣JT43
East
♠QJ3
Q972
A65
♣Q95
South
♠AK987
AT3
K87
♣K2
N 5NT
NS 5♠
NS 5
S 4NT
I think opening 1♠ is better. It either doesn't matter what you open OR bidding 1♠ allows you to play the NT from a better side.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 11
1♠
Hand 12

Dealer: West
NS Vul
North
♠2
Q42
AQ9
♣AKT743
West
♠AQ876
AKT
J72
♣Q5
East
♠J93
J97
KT8654
♣2
South
♠KT54
8653
3
♣J986
EW 5
NS 4♣
EW 2♠
NS 1NT
I think opening 1NT is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 12
1NT
Hand 13

Dealer: North
Both Vul
North
♠AQJ85
AJ3
QJT
♣52
West
♠KT73
8742
963
♣84
East
♠92
K9
K2
♣KQT9763
South
♠64
QT65
A8754
♣AJ
NS 6
NS 5
NS 4♠
NS 3NT
I think opening 1♠ is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 13
1♠
Hand 14

Dealer: East
None Vul
North
♠QJ4
T876
T43
♣J86
West
♠7
42
AQ865
♣AT952
East
♠T9832
AKQ
KJ
♣Q43
South
♠AK65
J953
972
♣K7
EW 3NT
EW 5
EW 5♣
EW 3♠
EW 2
I don't think it will matter what East opens. All roads lead to 3NT just in.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 14
Doesn't Matter
Hand 15

Dealer: South
N/S Vul
North
♠Q9
T
J42
♣AJ98654
West
♠42
J6532
75
♣QT32
East
♠AK53
KQ74
QT863
South
♠JT876
A98
AK9
♣K7
N 3♠/S 1♠
EW 3
NS 4♣
NS 1NT
NS 1
I think South is better off opening 1♠. They are less likely to get into trouble and E/W are less likely to find their fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 15
1♠
Hand 16

Dealer: West
E/W Vul
North
♠K2
JT3
JT965
♣732
West
♠Q8743
A98
AQ8
♣K4
East
♠AJT6
KQ76
2
♣AQJ8
South
♠95
542
K743
♣T965
EW 7NT
EW 7♠
EW 7
EW 7♣
I don't think it will really matter what West opens. They will easily find their ♠ fit over 1NT with Stayman. Doesn't matter
Hand 17

Dealer: North
None Vul
North
♠AKQ96
QT3
AJT
♣T4
West
♠73
J4
KQ8742
♣J73
East
♠842
AK9862
5
♣KQ8
South
♠JT5
75
963
♣A9652
NS 3♠
N 2NT
S 1NT
EW 1
EW 1
NS 1♣
I don't think it will really matter what North opens. If they open 1♠ they find their fit but may get to the 3 level since North might invite. If North opens up 1NT and East overcalls 2 I feel that the suit is so good North will now bid 2♠. Since 9 tricks are easy to take it won't even matter if they are at the 2 or 3 level. Doesn't matter
Hand 18

Dealer: East
N/S Vul
North
♠J642
K82
J3
♣Q743
West
♠9853
J64
T864
♣82
East
♠AKQT7
75
A95
♣KJ5
South

AQT93
KQ72
♣AT96
N 5
S 4
N 2NT
NS 4♣
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their game if East opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 18
1NT
Hand 19

Dealer: South
E/W Vul
North
♠JT8
6
Q87652
♣Q84
West
♠74
A954
K4
♣AJ732
East
♠A93
J8732
T9
♣K65
South
♠KQ652
KQT
AJ3
♣T9
2♠ can make by N/S
2 can make by E/W
2 can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their best spot if South opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1♠.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 19
1♠
Hand 20

Dealer: West
Both Vul
North
♠KQ986
Q3
K72
♣T73
West
♠AJT75
85
AQ9
♣A86
East
♠42
AKT92
JT
♣KQJ5
South
♠3
J764
86543
♣942
5NT can make by E/W
4♠ can make by W
4 can make by E/W
5♣ can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E
3 can make by E/W
I don't think it really matters what the opening bid is. E/W will get to 3NT and make the same number of tricks.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 20
Doesn't matter
Hand 21

Dealer: North
N/S Vul
North
♠KQJ74
J2
K93
♣AK5
West
♠A86
Q3
QJ75
♣QJ72
East
♠T95
K8
AT42
♣T843
South
♠32
AT97654
86
♣96
3 can make by N/S
2♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W
1 can make by E/W
I think opening 1NT wins on this hand. It helps N/S get to the best contract and stay low in the bidding.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 21
1NT
Hand 22

Dealer: East
E/W Vul
North
♠75
KJ86
AK984
♣KJ
West
♠K962
3
J6
♣Q87632
East
♠AQJ83
A9
T53
♣A94
South
♠T4
QT7542
Q72
♣T5
4♠ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by E/W
1NT can make by E/W
3 can make by N/S
2 can make by N/S
I think opening 1♠ wins on this hand. It helps E/W get to the best fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 22
1♠
Hand 23

Dealer: East
E/W Vul
North
♠JT
74
QT953
♣A764
West
♠753
KJT963
J6
♣T2
East
♠KQ4
852
K74
♣KJ83
South
♠A9862
AQ
A82
♣Q95
3♠ can make by N/S
4 can make by N
2NT can make by S
3 can make by S
1NT can make by N
2♣ can make by N/S
1 can make by E/W
Doesn't really matter what South opens. The partnership will end up in 1NT and realistically both sides take 8 tricks.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 23
Doesn't matter
Hand 24

Dealer: West
None Vul
North
♠KT
AK8
653
♣Q9875
West
♠AQJ83
Q4
K92
♣K62
East
♠954
JT52
QJ8
♣T43
South
♠762
9763
AT74
♣AJ
1NT can make by N/S
2 can make by N/S
2♣ can make by N/S
1 can make by N/S
1♠ can make by E/W
1♠ works best here. It allows you to get to your last making contract.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 24
1♠
Hand 25

Dealer: North
E/W Vul
North
♠AJ654
AJ9
A3
♣K85
West

T754
KQ75
♣QJT93
East
♠KQT87
82
J86
♣A64
South
♠932
KQ63
T942
♣72
1♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by E/W
2♣ can make by E/W
1 can make by W
1 can make by E/W
1NT works best here. It allows for the fact that East (or West) might come into the bidding and the Opponents will get too high OR it stops the N/S partnership from getting too high in their ♠ fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 25
1NT

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