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After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1♥ so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1♥ vs 1NT
How will I analyze this?
I am starting by looking at 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP and five ♠ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website: http://playbridge.com/
You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.
So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♠, two or three ♥, two or three ♦, two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.
Double Dummy?
Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down.On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.
64 Hands?
Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer?No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♠ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♠ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.
How will Opener show their values if they open 1♠?
Good question. I need to be consistent.If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.
I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience.
If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit.
If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time.
This is the table that will hold all the results.
Summary - Open 1NT or 1♠?
| Number of Hands Studied | Which wins? | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 25 |
1♠ - 12 1NT - 6 Doesn't Matter - 7 |
1♠ - 48.0% 1NT - 24.0% Doesn't Matter - 28.0% |
| Hands | Analysis | Verdict | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hand 1
|
Things do not work out well for N/S on this hand. They need East to come in with their ♥ suit and rescue them. That way East goes down in their contract rather than North. I thought East would come in over 1♠ for sure but await developments if North opened 1NT. However it seems that about the same number of people came into the bidding over both bids. So therefore it really doesn't matter what North opens, East will come in and rescue them. For details you can check out this post: Hand 1 |
Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 2
|
This is a tough one. I think 3NT will be easier to play and Double Dummy there are only 9 tricks available in both 3NT and 4♥. So the ♥ game can go down. If East opens 1NT they will find their fit and play in 4♥. If East opens 1♠ it is tougher to find their ♥ fit. For details you can check out this post: Hand 2 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 3
|
If South opens 1NT most people don't have the tools to find their ♠ fit. both 3NT and 4♠ make with no overtricks. So 4♠ will score better. For details you can check out this post: Hand 3 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 4
|
I feel that West can always show their ♠ suit IF South competes over 1NT. But what if South does not? Then it is better to open 1♠. For details you can check out this post: Hand 4 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 5
|
Easier to get to 3NT if North opens 1NT. For details you can check out this post: Hand 5 |
1NT | |||||||||
Hand 6
|
♠ plays better. For details you can check out this post: Hand 6 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 7
|
Better to open 1♠ because ♠ plays better if the Opponents don't come in and if they do come in you won't get too high. For details you can check out this post: Hand 7 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 8
|
I think either opening bid will get the partnership to 3NT. For details you can check out this post: Hand 8 |
Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 9
|
I think opening 1NT will stop the partnership from getting too high. For details you can check out this post: Hand 9 |
1NT | |||||||||
Hand 10
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. That allows you to find the major suit fit without relying on the Opponents to come in and help you along. For details you can check out this post: Hand 10 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 11
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. It either doesn't matter what you open OR bidding 1♠ allows you to play the NT from a better side. For details you can check out this post: Hand 11 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 12
|
I think opening 1NT is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily. For details you can check out this post: Hand 12 |
1NT | |||||||||
Hand 13
|
I think opening 1♠ is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily. For details you can check out this post: Hand 13 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 14
|
I don't think it will matter what East opens. All roads lead to 3NT just in. For details you can check out this post: Hand 14 |
Doesn't Matter | |||||||||
Hand 15
|
I think South is better off opening 1♠. They are less likely to get into trouble and E/W are less likely to find their fit. For details you can check out this post: Hand 15 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 16
|
I don't think it will really matter what West opens. They will easily find their ♠ fit over 1NT with Stayman. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 17
|
I don't think it will really matter what North opens. If they open 1♠ they find their fit but may get to the 3 level since North might invite. If North opens up 1NT and East overcalls 2♥ I feel that the suit is so good North will now bid 2♠. Since 9 tricks are easy to take it won't even matter if they are at the 2 or 3 level. | Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 18
|
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their game if East opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1NT. For details you can check out this post: Hand 18 |
1NT | |||||||||
Hand 19
|
I think it will be easier for N/S to find their best spot if South opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1♠. For details you can check out this post: Hand 19 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 20
|
I don't think it really matters what the opening bid is. E/W will get to 3NT and make the same number of tricks. For details you can check out this post: Hand 20 |
Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 21
|
I think opening 1NT wins on this hand. It helps N/S get to the best contract and stay low in the bidding. For details you can check out this post: Hand 21 |
1NT | |||||||||
Hand 22
|
I think opening 1♠ wins on this hand. It helps E/W get to the best fit. For details you can check out this post: Hand 22 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 23
|
Doesn't really matter what South opens. The partnership will end up in 1NT and realistically both sides take 8 tricks. For details you can check out this post: Hand 23 |
Doesn't matter | |||||||||
Hand 24
|
1♠ works best here. It allows you to get to your last making contract. For details you can check out this post: Hand 24 |
1♠ | |||||||||
Hand 25
|
1NT works best here. It allows for the fact that East (or West) might come into the bidding and the Opponents will get too high OR it stops the N/S partnership from getting too high in their ♠ fit. For details you can check out this post: Hand 25 |
1NT |
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