This is chapter 15 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.
The journey started with this post:
Later On
Here is the fifteenth hand I generated:
|
North♠Q9♥T♦J42 ♣AJ98654 |
|
West♠42 ♥J6532♦75 ♣QT32 |
|
East♠AK53♥KQ74♦QT863 ♣ |
|
South♠JT876♥A98♦AK9 ♣K7 |
|
Dealer is South and N/S are vulnerable.
Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by N
3
♥ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
1♠ can make by S
1
♦ can make by N/S
Analysis
If South opens up 1NT I think West will "Pass" and North might find a way to show their ♣ suit.
Standard American this would probably be a 3♣ bid showing an invitational hand with at least six ♣.
I think East at these colours (vulnerability) will chance a Double (take out).
South will "Pass" and West will bid 3
♥.
Will North bid again? Probably not. Their suit isn't that great.
If South opens 1NT and North is feeling a little feisty they might even bid 3NT hoping their ♣ suit runs. It doesn't and South will go down a few on a
♥ lead. North might feel a little sheepish with that bid but they shouldn't. They took a chance and it just didn't work out. (I would have tried it.)
What if North opens 1♠?
West will "Pass". North will bid 1NT since they do not have the values to bid a suit at the 2 level.
What will East do? Here it is not so clear however given the state of 2 level overcalls these days I feel confident that East will overcall 2
♦ with this hand.
South will "Pass" and so will West.
North might just "Pass" and let them play there. This would be good for N/S since East will go down a couple of tricks. (This is why you should have a good suit to overcall kids!)
North might bid 3♣ but with three losing
♦ and no assurance South has any ♣ at all they probably won't.
So I think 1♠ will be the best possible opening bid for N/S. They are less likely to get into trouble and it is more likely the Opponent's do.
To see the table where all the hands are listed click
HERE!
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