Hand 11 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 11 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the eleventh hand I generated:

	North ♠T2 ♥KJ864 ♦Q9 ♣A876
West ♠654 ♥5 ♦JT432 ♣JT43		East ♠QJ3 ♥Q972 ♦A65 ♣Q95
	South ♠AK987 ♥AT3 ♦K87 ♣K2

Dealer is South and no one is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
5NT can make by N
5♠ can make by N/S
5♥ can make by N/S
4NT can make by S

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think North will transfer to ♥ and bid 3NT. South will bid 4♥ since they have a fit.

What happens if South opens 1♠?

This depends on the system N/S are playing -- 2/1 Game Forcing or Standard American.

If they are playing Standard American North will bid 2♥ to show 10+ HCP and five or more ♥.

South will bid game since they have a fit and extras.

Same result.

What about if N/S are playing 2/1 Game Forcing?

Now North will be forced to say 1NT which is a forcing bid in this system.

South will bid 2NT to show a good 17, 18, 19.

Can North show a five card ♥ suit right now?

Would 3♦ be a transfer?

Unclear. What is 3♥ in this auction?

Since I'm not 100% confident in what my partnership has agreed I decided that you wouldn't be either.

In any case, if your partnership can show the five card major the partnership will get to 4♥. If they can't the partnership will get to 3NT.

However in THIS auction NORTH gets to play 3NT. North does better in 3NT than either North or South would in 4♥.

If North bids the NT and East is on lead they might even lead a ♥ if North didn't show their ♥ suit!

So I'm going to say it is definately close but it is better for South to open 1♠. You will probably end up in the same spot but you might end up playing the NT from the better side.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!