Sunday, March 28, 2021

Hand 23 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 23 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-third hand I generated:

North
♠JT
74
QT953
♣A764
West
♠753
KJT963
J6
♣T2
East
♠KQ4
852
K74
♣KJ83
South
♠A9862
AQ
A82
♣Q95

Dealer is South and everyone vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by N/S
4 can make by N
2NT can make by S
3 can make by S
1NT can make by N
2♣ can make by N/S
1 can make by E/W


Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think everyone else will "Pass". West is pretty weak to be coming in vulnerable. (Or even non-vulnerable!) This is where they will play.

What happens if South opens 1♠?

North will respond 1NT and I said South would "Pass" with 16 HCP.

South is better off playing in 1NT IF when North is playing 1NT East leads a . But I don't think East will. So North will also take 8 tricks in NT.

So I think this one is a draw. Really doesn't matter what South opens.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Monday, March 22, 2021

Hand 22 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 22 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-second hand I generated:

North
♠75
KJ86
AK984
♣KJ
West
♠K962
3
J6
♣Q87632
East
♠AQJ83
A9
T53
♣A94
South
♠T4
QT7542
Q72
♣T5

Dealer is East and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
4♠ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by E/W
1NT can make by E/W
3 can make by N/S
2 can make by N/S


Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think South will "Pass" but what will West do?

They are too weak to bid Stayman to find a four-four ♠ fit.

West will either "Pass" or make a 2♠ (Relay) bid. 2♠ forces East to say 3♣ which West will "Pass".

If West passes the 1NT opening bid North will probably come in. Since East has a good ♠ suit I said they would now show it. West should certainly bid game now.

But that relies on North coming in.

What happens if East opens 1♠?

West will bid 2♠.

Will North come in? Probably.

When North comes in I said that East would not explore further with 15 or 16. However I think West will bid at least 3♠ to show their fourth ♠.

That might be all the encouragement East needs to bid the game.

Both these rely on North to bid.

What happens if North does NOT bid.

You find your best fit when East opens 1♠. So that is the winning call.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Open 2 Clubs?

Hi Heidi,

How should North open? Should North bid 2♣ instead of 1♣ so partner would not pass?

All vulnerable, East is dealer:

North
♠AQJ
AT
J
♣AKQJ832
West
♠KT742
K97
95432
East
♠965
J6532
T8
♣T97
South
♠83
Q84
AKQ76
♣654

N E S W
Pass Pass Pass
???


Heidi's Answer:


I think North is strong enough to open 2♣ for sure.

With such a lovely suit South might even jump to 3 showing a nice hand with a good suit. But South with 11 HCP should propel the partnership to at least a small slam. Their Partner opened 2♣ showing the equivalent of 22+ points.

North will bid 4♣ because that is their strong suit.

South will maybe just ask for Aces? They really shouldn't (no first or second round controls of the suits) but they are stuck.

I think it is tough to get to the 7 level and as it turns out 13 tricks relies on the ♠ finesse (which works) because the suit is blocked. There are no entries to the South hand so North would have to overtake the and once they do that the suit does not run.

It's tough to play in NT also which is a better contract. North might have no idea South's suit is so good and South really just has not the other suits.

Suggested Auction:

N E S W
Pass Pass Pass
2♣ Pass 3 Pass
4♣ Pass 4NT Pass
5♠ Pass 5NT Pass
6 Pass 6NT Pass
Pass??? Pass

This is no means a perfect auction at all. But South will be thinking SLAM for sure once North opens 2♣. So when they ask for Aces and then Kings they get stuck when North bids 6. They are now past the 6♣ slam they wanted to be in. (Which one could argue they should have known.) So they try 6NT. Missing two Kings it is hard to bid to the 7 level.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Hand 21 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 21 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-first hand I generated:

North
♠KQJ74
J2
K93
♣AK5
West
♠A86
Q3
QJ75
♣QJ72
East
♠T95
K8
AT42
♣T843
South
♠32
AT97654
86
♣96

Dealer is North and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3 can make by N/S
2♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W
1 can make by E/W


Analysis

If North opens up 1NT I think South will transfer to and "Pass". This is where they will play.

What happens if North opens 1♠?

The only thing saving the partnership here is a 3 bid by South showing a weak hand with a long suit. But even then North might raise.

If South passes 1♠ they will play it there.

If South bids 1NT I have stipulated North will raise to 2NT to show their balanced 18-19. Will South be able to get out in 3? Unclear.

How do the contracts compare? Playing in is the best but N/S only take 9 tricks. They have four losers. I feel it is easy for the Defence to cash their four tricks also. When West is in with their A♠ they can easily shift to the Q.

Playing in ♠ is the next best but N/S only take 8 tricks against best defence. If the Opponents start by cashing their A Declarer will make an extra trick.

Playing in 1NT really depends on the lead. Best if West leads a but here they would lead a low and would East put in the T? Unclear. I can see this making many overtricks because of the tricky defence.

But Declarer will have to give up a trick in order to get six back. They need the entry to their hand.

If I am assuming best Declarer play I will also assume best Defence. So 1NT will only make -- E/W will get the tricks they deserve.

So opening 1NT wins here. N/S find their fit without getting the partnership too high.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Hand 20 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 20 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twentieth hand I generated:

North
♠KQ986
Q3
K72
♣T73
West
♠AJT75
85
AQ9
♣A86
East
♠42
AKT92
JT
♣KQJ5
South
♠3
J764
86543
♣942

Dealer is West and everyone vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
5NT can make by E/W
4♠ can make by W
4 can make by E/W
5♣ can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E
3 can make by E/W


Analysis

If West opens up 1NT I think East will transfer to and bid 3NT. This is where they will play.

What happens if West opens 1♠?

East will bid 2 and the partnership will still get to 3NT.

If West opens 1NT they are likely to get a ♠ lead from North. But either way Declarer has 11 tricks no matter what North leads.

So I think this one is a draw. Really doesn't matter what West opens.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Hand 19 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 19 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the ninteenth hand I generated:

North
♠JT8
6
Q87652
♣Q84
West
♠74
A954
K4
♣AJ732
East
♠A93
J8732
T9
♣K65
South
♠KQ652
KQT
AJ3
♣T9

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
2♠ can make by N/S
2 can make by E/W
2 can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W


Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think West will "Pass" and North will find a way to show their suit. Probably a relay bid if they play those.

So N/S will end up in 3.

What happens if South opens 1♠?

North will raise to 2♠ and that will end the auction. South is too weak to make a game try with only 15 HCP.

How does ♠ do realistically?

Declarer should find 8 tricks pretty easily. They have five losers.

Playing in 3 you have the same five losers.

So I'm going to give 1♠ the win. It allows you to find your fit and play at a lower level.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!