Hand 21 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 21 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-first hand I generated:

	North ♠KQJ74 ♥J2 ♦K93 ♣AK5
West ♠A86 ♥Q3 ♦QJ75 ♣QJ72		East ♠T95 ♥K8 ♦AT42 ♣T843
	South ♠32 ♥AT97654 ♦86 ♣96

Dealer is North and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♥ can make by N/S
2♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W
1♦ can make by E/W

Analysis

If North opens up 1NT I think South will transfer to ♥ and "Pass". This is where they will play.

What happens if North opens 1♠?

The only thing saving the partnership here is a 3♥ bid by South showing a weak hand with a long suit. But even then North might raise.

If South passes 1♠ they will play it there.

If South bids 1NT I have stipulated North will raise to 2NT to show their balanced 18-19. Will South be able to get out in 3♥? Unclear.

How do the contracts compare? Playing in ♥ is the best but N/S only take 9 tricks. They have four losers. I feel it is easy for the Defence to cash their four tricks also. When West is in with their A♠ they can easily shift to the Q♦.

Playing in ♠ is the next best but N/S only take 8 tricks against best defence. If the Opponents start by cashing their A♦ Declarer will make an extra trick.

Playing in 1NT really depends on the lead. Best if West leads a ♦ but here they would lead a low ♦ and would East put in the T♦? Unclear. I can see this making many overtricks because of the tricky defence.

But Declarer will have to give up a ♥ trick in order to get six back. They need the entry to their hand.

If I am assuming best Declarer play I will also assume best Defence. So 1NT will only make -- E/W will get the tricks they deserve.

So opening 1NT wins here. N/S find their fit without getting the partnership too high.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!