Hand 16 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 16 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the sixteenth hand I generated:

Hand 16

	North ♠J954 ♥A92 ♦J962 ♣Q9
West ♠KT7 ♥KQ754 ♦A7 ♣K82		East ♠8632 ♥J6 ♦KQ543 ♣A3
	South ♠AQ ♥T83 ♦T8 ♣JT7654

Dealer is West and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
4NT can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E/W
3♥ can make by E/W
2♦ can make by E/W
1♣ can make by E/W

Analysis

If West opens up 1♥ I think East will bid 1♠.

West will rebid 1NT to show a balanced minimum and that is where they will play. East just doesn't quite have enough to invite.

What happens if West opens 1NT?

East will try Stayman but after not finding a ♠ will bid 3NT. They will get to game.

Will game make?

It should. I imagine North will now lead a ♦ rather than a ♠ (they know East has four of them) and it is easy to knock out the A♥ to get to at least 9 tricks.

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to 3NT which will make.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!