Sunday, May 2, 2021

Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.

Skip to the table!

After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1 so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1 vs 1NT

How will I analyze this?

I started by analyzing open 1NT vs opening 1♠. I have the results I have looked at so far in this post:
1NT vs 1♠

I am continuing the fun by looking at another 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP but this time five and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website: http://playbridge.com/

You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.

So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five , two or three ♠, two or three , two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.

Double Dummy?

Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down.

On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.

64 Hands?

Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer?

No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1 then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1 on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.

How will Opener show their values if they open 1?

Good question. I need to be consistent.

If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

If they have 15 HCP I will just have them rebid 2NT if Responder responds in a new suit at the 2 level to show 10 or more High Card Values. They might miss a few games if Responder has 10 or 11 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 10 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience.

If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit.

If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time.

This is the table that will hold all the results.

Summary - Open 1NT or 1?



Number of Hands Studied Which wins? Percentage
23 1 - 4
1NT - 5
Doesn't Matter - 14
1 - 17.39%
1NT - 21.74%
Doesn't Matter - 60.87%




Hands Analysis Verdict
Hand 1

Dealer: North
None Vul
North
♠J2
AKQT8
A76
♣K84
West
♠K73
97654
J542
♣J
East
♠65
J2
T983
♣QT762
South
♠AQT984
3
KQ
♣A953
6NT can make by N/S
N/S 6♠
N/S 6
N/S 4
N/S 4♣
Shouldn't matter. Either way the partnership will get to a small slam and make. For more information click here. Doesn't matter
Hand 2

Dealer: East
N/S Vul
North
♠T942
QJT
A84
♣J32
West
♠KQ873
732
QT652
East
♠J6
A9865
K97
♣AK9
South
♠A5
K4
J3
♣QT87654

This is where I put the analysis for hand 2 My verdict for 2
Hand 3

Dealer: South
E/W Vul
North
♠872
93
QJT32
♣Q83
West
♠QJT3
4
K54
♣JT952
East
♠654
AKJ82
A96
♣76
South
♠AK9
QT765
87
♣AK4
1NT can make by N/S
N/S 1
E/W 1♠
E/W 2♣
1NT gets N/S to the best possible place -- either in 1NT themselves or 2 by East. For details you can check out this post: Hand 3 1NT
Hand 4

Dealer: West
Both Vul
North
♠KQJ2
J
AQT8643
♣9
West
♠A84
AKQ64
752
♣K3
East
♠93
8753
J9
♣QT872
South
♠T765
T92
K
♣AJ654
N/S 5♠
N/S 5
N/S 1NT
E/W can make 2
Shouldn't matter what West opens. North has a VERY strong distributional hand and won't be stopped with either bid! Doesn't matter.
Hand 5

Dealer: North
N/S Vul
North
♠AK8
KQ873
K98
♣T7
West
♠J9753

AJ
♣Q86543
East
♠T
J9642
T2
♣AKJ92
South
♠Q642
AT5
Q76543
N/S 4
N/S 4
N/S 3♠
E/W 5♣
Even with the bad trump break (East has FIVE of them) N/S can make a game. If North opens 1NT they will not find their best fit. 1
Hand 6

Dealer: East
E/W Vul
North
♠Q5
973
KJ8542
♣73
West
♠832
AK
3
♣AKQT862
East
♠AK
QT865
AQT
♣J54
South
♠JT9764
J42
976
♣9
E/W 7NT
E/W 7
E/W 7♣
I think either way West will force to a slam. Probably not the grand but opening either way won't help. Doesn't Matter
Hand 7

Dealer: South
All Vul
North
♠Q3
J4
AQ763
♣QT65
West
♠JT87652
53
J
♣KJ2
East
♠A
T872
T9542
♣A73
South
♠K94
AKQ96
K8
♣984
N/S 4NT
3 can make by N/S
N/S will get to play in 3NT no matter what they open. North has enough to bid at the 2 level and that is all South will need to bid game themselves. Doesn't matter
Hand 8

Dealer: West
None Vul
North
♠83
QJT9
KT8543
♣4
West
♠AT2
AK764
A76
♣J9
East
♠Q764
8
Q92
♣Q7653
South
♠KJ95
532
J
♣AKT82
E/W 2♠
E/W 1NT
E/W 2♣ can make by E/W
E/W 1
E/W 1
West will play in 1NT regardless of what they open. Doesn't matter
Hand 9

Dealer: North
E/W Vul
North
♠Q6
AQ875
AQ9
♣JT4
West
♠942
JT9
8753
♣KQ8
East
♠AJ8
63
KJT6
♣A962
South
♠KT753
K42
42
♣753
N/S 2
N/S 1♠
E/W 2
E/W 2♣
Opening 1 will get N/S to 2 -- even if East makes a Take Out Double. Opening 1NT gets N/S to 2♠ since South will transfer. plays a trick better. 1
Hand 10

Dealer: East
All Vul
North
♠54
T764
KJ73
♣632
West
♠Q9763
2
QT42
♣J87
East
♠AT2
KJ953
A9
♣KQT
South
♠KJ8
AQ8
865
♣A954
E/W 3♠
E/W 1NT
E/W 1
E/W 1
1NT gets E/W to the best possible place (♠) at a much safer level. For details you can check out this post: Hand 10 1NT
Hand 11

Dealer: South
None Vul
North
♠KJT8
76
KQ
♣QJT72
West
♠A976
843
J963
♣K8
East
♠32
QJ9
T752
♣6543
South
♠Q54
AKT52
A84
♣A9
S 6NT
S 6♠
S 6
N 5NT
N 5♠
N 5
Either will get South (not North!) to 3NT. Doesn't matter
Hand 12

Dealer: West
N/S Vul
North
♠KT63
Q54
JT52
♣65
West
♠AQ5
KJT86
AQ8
♣84
East
♠42
A93
K963
♣AKT9
South
♠J987
72
74
♣QJ732
E/W 6NT
E/W 6
W 6
E 5
NT plays better than so that is the winning bid. If you open 1NT you do not find the fit which is a good contract but not the best. 1NT
Hand 13

Dealer: North
All Vul
North
♠K4
A8543
AK7
♣Q52
West
♠T9876
Q
Q8
♣T9643
East
♠A53
T9762
632
♣AJ
South
♠QJ2
KJ
JT954
♣K87
N/S 5NT
N/S 5
No matter what N/S will reach 3NT -- which is where they belong. Doesn't matter
Hand 14

Dealer: East
None Vul
North
♠53
QT95
K754
♣AQ8
West
♠JT7
J4
AT2
♣JT732
East
♠AK6
AK762
Q96
♣64
South
♠Q9842
83
J83
♣K95
N/S 1NT
E/W 2♣
E/W 1♠
E/W 1
E/W 1
No matter what E/W will get to 1NT -- either by East if they open 1NT or West if they respond 1NT to East's open 1 bid. Doesn't matter
Hand 15

Dealer: South
N/S Vul
North
♠98652
T52
52
♣T96
West
♠KT
K86
KQJT94
♣72
East
♠AQ43
A3
76
♣Q8543
South
♠J7
QJ974
A83
♣AKJ
E 4NT
W 3NT
E/W 4
E/W 3♣
E/W 1♠
I think either way West will come in with their suit and N/S will stop bidding. Doesn't matter
Hand 16

Dealer: West
E/W Vul
North
♠J954
A92
J962
♣Q9
West
♠KT7
KQ754
A7
♣K82
East
♠8632
J6
KQ543
♣A3
South
♠AQ
T83
T8
♣JT7654
E/W 4NT
E/W 3♠
E/W 3
E/W 2
E/W 1♣
1NT works best because you will bid your game that makes. For details you can check out this post: Hand 16 1NT
Hand 17

Dealer: North
None Vul
North
♠A4
AQ873
Q63
♣QJ4
West
♠Q6
KT9
JT954
♣A75
East
♠KJ98
J65
AK72
♣93
South
♠T7532
42
8
♣KT862
N/S 3♣
N/S 1
N/S 1♠
W 3
E 2
E/W 1NT
1 allows the partnership to stay LOW in the bidding -- which they need to on this hand. For details you can check out this post: Hand 17 1
Hand 18

Dealer: East
N/S Vul
North
♠J65
72
JT6
♣KT954
West
♠KT7
KT54
K82
♣QJ3
East
♠AQ2
AQJ86
Q4
♣762
South
♠9843
93
A9753
♣A8
E/W 3NT
E/W 3
E/W 1♠
E/W 1♣
N/S 1
1NT gives the best chance of getting to the game that makes (3NT) and avoiding the game that goes down. For details you can check out this post: Hand 18 1NT
Hand 19

Dealer: South
E/W Vul
North
♠T85
5
AK862
♣QJT4
West
♠A72
KJ4
T975
♣875
East
♠J963
T732
Q3
♣A93
South
♠KQ4
AQ986
J4
♣K62
N/S 2NT
N/S 2♠
N/S 2
N/S 3
N/S 3♣
1 allows the bidding to remain low and stop in a makeable contract. For details you can check out this post: Hand 19 1
Hand 20

Dealer: West
All Vul
North
♠A53
3
Q7
♣AKJ9873
West
♠QJ4
AKQ84
K65
♣64
East
♠KT82
J9752
943
♣Q
South
♠976
T6
AJT82
♣T52
This is where I put the analysis for hand 20 My verdict for 20
Hand 21

Dealer: North
N/S Vul
North
♠KQ
AKT52
932
♣A74
West
♠864
QJ964
K
♣QT65
East
♠75
73
AQJT76
♣K98
South
♠AJT932
8
854
♣J32
N/S 3♠
N/S 1NT
E/W 2
I think either way N/S will end up in 2♠. If North opens 1NT, South will transfer and "Pass". If Norht opens 1 and rebids 1NT (like I said they would) then South will bid 1♠ followed by 2♠ showing a weak hand with a six card suit. Doesn't matter
Hand 22

Dealer: East
E/W Vul
North
♠T5
Q9
K3
♣J986532
West
♠432
KJ65
854
♣QT7
East
♠98
AT832
AT2
♣AK4
South
♠AKQJ76
74
QJ976
N/S 4♠
N/S 4
E 2
W 1
E/W 1NT
South has a very strong hand. If they evaluate it properly I don't think East opening 1NT or 1 will make any difference. South will bid to the number of ♠ they feel they can make. Doesn't matter
Hand 23

Dealer: South
All Vul
North
♠T4
T72
KJT932
♣95
West
♠AJ96532
AK
A
♣864
East
♠7
943
Q874
♣QJT72
South
♠KQ8
QJ865
65
♣AK3
E/W 4♣
E/W 4♠
E/W 1NT
N/S 2
N/S 1
West is going to get in there and bid that suit no matter what South opens. Doesn't matter
Hand 24

Dealer: West
None Vul
North
♠QJ7
6
T82
♣AQ6542
West
♠KT3
QJT83
AJ
♣KJT
East
♠A9
AK97542
K73
♣3
South
♠86542

Q9654
♣987
W 6NT
E/W 6
E 6NT
I think both opening bids will get you to a small slam in . Doesn't matter.
Hand 25

Dealer: North
E/W Vul
North
♠QJ9
KQ932
K62
♣A5
West
♠K73
T74
T543
♣J96
East
♠A82
A6
AQJ9
♣KQ84
South
♠T654
J85
87
♣T732
This is where I put the analysis for hand 25 My verdict for 25
Hand 26

Dealer: East
All Vul
North
♠8
JT65
Q52
♣98732
West
♠KQ954
K87
J3
♣K64
East
♠JT
AQ943
AT4
♣AQ5
South
♠A7632
2
K9876
♣JT
This is where I put the analysis for hand 26 My verdict for 26
Hand 27

Dealer: South
None Vul
North
♠A72
T862
Q53
♣AJT
West
♠T4
93
9764
♣Q9654
East
♠J9863
74
AKJ2
♣K2
South
♠KQ5
AKQJ5
T8
♣873
This is where I put the analysis for hand 27 My verdict for 27
Hand 28

Dealer: West
N/S Vul
North
♠AT6
K83
KT874
♣53
West
♠J85
AQ972
AQ2
♣Q7
East
♠Q9732
T4
J3
♣K642
South
♠K4
J65
965
♣AJT98
This is where I put the analysis for hand 28 My verdict for 28
Hand 29

Dealer: North
All Vul
North
♠AK
QJ653
T53
♣AK7
West
♠74
KT9
KQ864
♣Q62
East
♠J98532
A42
72
♣T5
South
♠QT6
87
AJ9
♣J9843
This is where I put the analysis for hand 29 My verdict for 29
Hand 30

Dealer: East
None Vul
North
♠Q52
T42
QJ94
♣J92
West
♠AKJ
Q
T87532
♣A83
East
♠84
AKJ63
AK6
♣754
South
♠T9763
9875

♣KQT6
This is where I put the analysis for hand 30 My verdict for 30
Hand 31

Dealer: South
N/S Vul
North
♠Q8
Q8
9862
♣QJT96
West
♠K742
K52
T543
♣K8
East
♠T965
T64
KQ7
♣A52
South
♠AJ3
AJ973
AJ
♣743
N/S 1NT
N/S 2♣
N/S 1
E/W 2♠
E/W 1
Either way N/S will get to 1NT. If South opens 1, North will respond 1NT and play it there. If South opens 1NT they will play it there. Doesn't matter
Hand 32

Dealer: West
E/W Vul
North
♠JT6
32
QJ984
♣965
West
♠AK8
T9764
A3
♣AJ3
East
♠752
AKQ
KT2
♣T842
South
♠Q943
J85
765
♣KQ7
This is where I put the analysis for hand 32 My verdict for 32
Hand 33

Dealer: North North
♠97
AKJ62
KQ2
♣A64
West
♠KJ84
54
A9743
♣Q3
East
♠T652
T8
JT86
♣KJ9
South
♠AQ3
Q973
5
♣T8752
This is where I put the analysis for hand 33 My verdict for 33
Hand 34

Dealer: East North
♠T43
85
QJT654
♣87
West
♠KQ62
A97
97
♣AT94
East
♠A85
KQJ64
K32
♣Q6
South
♠J97
T32
A8
♣KJ532
This is where I put the analysis for hand 34 My verdict for 34
Hand 35

Dealer: South North
♠J82
QJ8
KQ72
♣T74
West
♠6
T532
J9543
♣J52
East
♠KQ97543
9
6
♣AK98
South
♠AT
AK764
AT8
♣Q63
This is where I put the analysis for hand 35 My verdict for 35
Hand 36

Dealer: West North
♠KQJT7
3
8
♣AQ9862
West
♠A86
AK954
J52
♣KJ
East
♠9543
QJ762
T6
♣73
South
♠2
T8
AKQ9743
♣T54
This is where I put the analysis for hand 36 My verdict for 36
Hand 37

Dealer: North North
♠AJ
QT963
KJ3
♣AJ7
West
♠T7542
854
987
♣T4
East
♠Q983
72
T652
♣K32
South
♠K6
AKJ
AQ4
♣Q9865
This is where I put the analysis for hand 37 My verdict for 37
Hand 38

Dealer: East North
♠T72
A53
A632
♣J73
West
♠9
K74
J984
♣K9865
East
♠A85
QT986
KQT
♣AT
South
♠KQJ643
J2
75
♣Q42
This is where I put the analysis for hand 38 My verdict for 38
Hand 39

Dealer: South North
♠A765432
5
T4
♣KJ5
West
♠JT9
Q94
AK853
♣94
East
♠Q
T873
762
♣AT763
South
♠K8
AKJ62
QJ9
♣Q82
This is where I put the analysis for hand 39 My verdict for 39
Hand 40

Dealer: West North
♠A52
KJ853
76
♣K72
West
♠K73
AQ642
A95
♣A5
East
♠QJT98
9
43
♣JT964
South
♠64
T7
KQJT82
♣Q83
This is where I put the analysis for hand 40 My verdict for 40
Hand 41

Dealer: North North
♠KT7
KQT98
AK4
♣98
West
♠QJ543
75
QJT
♣K43
East
♠986
A64
852
♣AQ76
South
♠A2
J32
9763
♣JT52
This is where I put the analysis for hand 41 My verdict for 41
Hand 42

Dealer: East North
♠K72
5
AJT842
♣K98
West
♠J986
A2
65
♣76542
East
♠Q5
QJ874
KQ7
♣AQJ
South
♠AT43
KT963
93
♣T3
This is where I put the analysis for hand 42 My verdict for 42
Hand 43

Dealer: South North
♠KQ653

5
♣KT96432
West
♠AT4
T972
KT98
♣87
East
♠92
J543
AQJ642
♣5
South
♠J87
AKQ86
73
♣AQJ
This is where I put the analysis for hand 43 My verdict for 43
Hand 44

Dealer: West North
♠Q7
Q62
A876
♣KJT6
West
♠AJ
JT975
KJ9
♣AQ7
East
♠K832
A8
52
♣98532
South
♠T9654
K43
QT43
♣4
This is where I put the analysis for hand 44 My verdict for 44
Hand 45

Dealer: North North
♠KQJ
QJT93
64
♣AQ2
West
♠7652
K62
9853
♣87
East
♠A
8754
AKQJ72
♣93
South
♠T9843
A
T
♣KJT654
This is where I put the analysis for hand 45 My verdict for 45
Hand 46

Dealer: East North
♠K8732
742
K8
♣742
West
♠4
AT63
QT652
♣KJ6
East
♠QT6
KQJ98
A3
♣A83
South
♠AJ95
5
J974
♣QT95
This is where I put the analysis for hand 46 My verdict for 46
Hand 47

Dealer: South North
♠J874
AT73
985
♣73
West
♠KQT2
9
642
♣AQJ96
East
♠953
K84
KQT7
♣T82
South
♠A6
QJ652
AJ3
♣K54
This is where I put the analysis for hand 47 My verdict for 47
Hand 48

Dealer: West North
♠T976
T7
AQJ4
♣J85
West
♠A3
A9852
K82
♣AQ4
East
♠854
KJ6
73
♣K9763
South
♠KQJ2
Q43
T965
♣T2
This is where I put the analysis for hand 48 My verdict for 48
Hand 49

Dealer: North North
♠K85
AJT96
KQ
♣A94
West
♠A72
743
532
♣JT32
East
♠QT9
Q85
J987
♣Q76
South
♠J643
K2
AT64
♣K85
This is where I put the analysis for hand 49 My verdict for 49
Hand 50

Dealer: East North
♠QJT432
853
8
♣A64
West
♠87
64
AQJT7532
♣3
East
♠96
AKJ92
K96
♣KQJ
South
♠AK5
QT7
4
♣T98752
This is where I put the analysis for hand 50 My verdict for 50
Hand 51

Dealer: South North
♠J63
AQJ6
K976
♣52
West
♠KT87
532
8532
♣43
East
♠A952
8
T4
♣AKT876
South
♠Q4
KT974
AQJ
♣QJ9
This is where I put the analysis for hand 51 My verdict for 51
Hand 52

Dealer: West North
♠Q8
A74
A874
♣8654
West
♠A94
KQJ85
QJ
♣QJ9
East
♠K6532
32
K
♣AKT73
South
♠JT7
T96
T96532
♣2
This is where I put the analysis for hand 52 My verdict for 52
Hand 53

Dealer: North North
♠K4
KQJT3
AJ3
♣Q83
West
♠Q732
872
765
♣AK9
East
♠T965
5
Q9842
♣542
South
♠AJ8
A964
KT
♣JT76
This is where I put the analysis for hand 53 My verdict for 53
Hand 54

Dealer: East North
♠762
AK5
AJ86532
West
♠KT54
Q
94
♣KT7653
East
♠AJ
T6432
KQT
♣AQ8
South
♠Q983
J987
7
♣J942
This is where I put the analysis for hand 54 My verdict for 54
Hand 55

Dealer: South North
♠KJ8
T64
832
♣QJ87
West
♠QT952
9
AKT5
♣653
East
♠64
KQ52
J96
♣KT42
South
♠A73
AJ873
Q74
♣A9
This is where I put the analysis for hand 55 My verdict for 55
Hand 56

Dealer: West North
♠972
K6
K632
♣AT92
West
♠AJ6
QJ752
A7
♣QJ6
East
♠KT5
AT4
T9854
♣53
South
♠Q843
983
QJ
♣K874
This is where I put the analysis for hand 56 My verdict for 56
Hand 57

Dealer: North North
♠AQJ
Q6532
A7
♣A76
West
♠KT83
9
KT853
♣K83
East
♠97542
AKJ
J62
♣T2
South
♠6
T874
Q94
♣QJ954
This is where I put the analysis for hand 57 My verdict for 57
Hand 58

Dealer: East North
♠JT6
64
AK98764
♣3
West
♠A85

53
♣KT987654
East
♠432
KQ753
QJ
♣AQJ
South
♠KQ97
AJT982
T2
♣2
This is where I put the analysis for hand 58 My verdict for 58
Hand 59

Dealer: South North
♠AK76
J76
2
♣KQT96
West
♠T42
T983
KQJ63
♣4
East
♠953
4
AT54
♣J8752
South
♠QJ8
AKQ52
987
♣A3
This is where I put the analysis for hand 59 My verdict for 59
Hand 60

Dealer: West North
♠J62
42
Q973
♣AJ43
West
♠AT9
AKJ98
T2
♣K98
East
♠Q4
Q63
854
♣QT652
South
♠K8753
T75
AKJ6
♣7
This is where I put the analysis for hand 60 My verdict for 60
Hand 61

Dealer: North North
♠K96
Q9762
AK
♣A43
West
♠A82
K3
QT976
♣QT9
East
♠QT4
AJ854
5
♣K876
South
♠J753
T
J8432
♣J52
This is where I put the analysis for hand 61 My verdict for 61
Hand 62

Dealer: East North
♠AJ92
9876
J7654
West
♠Q4
JT2
AT8
♣T8543
East
♠T73
AQ543
92
♣AKQ
South
♠K865
K
KQ3
♣J9762
This is where I put the analysis for hand 62 My verdict for 62
Hand 63

Dealer: South North
♠KT63

QT952
♣7632
West
♠AJ2
T9
AJ4
♣KQ984
East
♠975
KJ8732
863
♣J
South
♠Q84
AQ654
K7
♣AT5
This is where I put the analysis for hand 63 My verdict for 63
Hand 64

Dealer: West North
♠JT98

JT987
♣QT98
West
♠73
AKQJ2
K54
♣KJ6
East
♠AKQ6
8763
3
♣A752
South
♠542
T954
AQ62
♣43
This is where I put the analysis for hand 64 My verdict for 64

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