Hand 3 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 3 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the third hand I generated:

Hand 3

	North ♠872 ♥93 ♦QJT32 ♣Q83
West ♠QJT3 ♥4 ♦K54 ♣JT952		East ♠654 ♥AKJ82 ♦A96 ♣76
	South ♠AK9 ♥QT765 ♦87 ♣AK4

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
1NT can make by N/S
1♦ can make by N/S
1♠ can make by E/W
2♣ can make by E/W

Analysis

If South opens up 1♥ I think North will either "Pass" or bid 1NT. If North does bid 1NT then I forced a "Pass" upon South because they only had 16 HCP. North is better off bidding 1NT because that contract will (just!) make and 1♥ can go down.

What happens if South opens 1NT?

Well that all depends on what East does. Will they bid 2♥ rather than letting South play in 1NT? Certainly some will.

2♥ will certainly go down. Even down 1 is bad (minus 100) since N/S can only make 7 tricks in 1NT (for 90 points).

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to the right spot (1NT) OR by bidding 1NT East is more encouraged to come in with their suit -- the one South has!

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!