Hand 19 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 19 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the ninteenth hand I generated:

Hand 19

	North ♠T85 ♥5 ♦AK862 ♣QJT4
West ♠A72 ♥KJ4 ♦T975 ♣875		East ♠J963 ♥T732 ♦Q3 ♣A93
	South ♠KQ4 ♥AQ986 ♦J4 ♣K62

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
2NT can make by N/S
2♠ can make by N/S
2♥ can make by N/S
3♦ can make by N/S
3♣ can make by N/S

Analysis

If South opens up 1♥ North will bid 2♦ to show 10+ HCP. I said with 15 that South would rebid 2NT. Now North will "Pass" -- they have nothing extra.



What happens if South opens 1NT?

North will put them in game with their 10 HCP.

On best defence 3NT will go down so it is best to not get too high.

So I am going to give 1♥ the win here. You have a better chance of staying low.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 18 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 18 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the eighteenth hand I generated:

Hand 18

	North ♠J65 ♥72 ♦JT6 ♣KT954
West ♠KT7 ♥KT54 ♦K82 ♣QJ3		East ♠AQ2 ♥AQJ86 ♦Q4 ♣762
	South ♠9843 ♥93 ♦A9753 ♣A8

Dealer is East and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make by E/W
3♥ can make by E/W
1♠ can make by E/W
1♣ can make by E/W
1♦ can make by N/S

Analysis

If East opens up 1♥ I think West will bid 3♥ invitational. Or whatever West can do to show an invitational hand with four trump.

East will raise to 4♥.



What happens if East opens 1NT?

West might bid Stayman but with a 4-3-3-3 shape should IGNORE the potential 4-4 major suit fit and just bid 3NT.

On best defence 3NT will make but 4♥ will go down. South can lead their A♣ and then a ♣ to Partner's K♣ and then trump a ♣. Plus the partnership has the A♦.

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to the right spot (3NT) rather than the game that goes down.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 16 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 16 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the sixteenth hand I generated:

Hand 16

	North ♠J954 ♥A92 ♦J962 ♣Q9
West ♠KT7 ♥KQ754 ♦A7 ♣K82		East ♠8632 ♥J6 ♦KQ543 ♣A3
	South ♠AQ ♥T83 ♦T8 ♣JT7654

Dealer is West and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
4NT can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E/W
3♥ can make by E/W
2♦ can make by E/W
1♣ can make by E/W

Analysis

If West opens up 1♥ I think East will bid 1♠.

West will rebid 1NT to show a balanced minimum and that is where they will play. East just doesn't quite have enough to invite.

What happens if West opens 1NT?

East will try Stayman but after not finding a ♠ will bid 3NT. They will get to game.

Will game make?

It should. I imagine North will now lead a ♦ rather than a ♠ (they know East has four of them) and it is easy to knock out the A♥ to get to at least 9 tricks.

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to 3NT which will make.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 10 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 10 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the tenth hand I generated:

Hand 10

	North ♠54 ♥T764 ♦KJ73 ♣632
West ♠Q9763 ♥2 ♦QT42 ♣J87		East ♠AT2 ♥KJ953 ♦A9 ♣KQT
	South ♠KJ8 ♥AQ8 ♦865 ♣A954

Dealer is East and everyone is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by E/W
1NT can make by E/W
1♥ can make by E/W
1♦ can make by E/W

Analysis

If East opens up 1♥ I think West will either "Pass" or bid 1♠. South has values but no bid!

If West passes that is where they will play.

If West bids 1♠ I forced East to bid 2NT to show their full 17 count. This does not work well. There is probably no way for West to bail out below game and game does not make.

What happens if East opens 1NT?

West will transfer to ♠ and "Pass". The partnership is safe and happy.

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to the right spot (♠) and staying LOW in the bidding.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 3 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 3 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the third hand I generated:

Hand 3

	North ♠872 ♥93 ♦QJT32 ♣Q83
West ♠QJT3 ♥4 ♦K54 ♣JT952		East ♠654 ♥AKJ82 ♦A96 ♣76
	South ♠AK9 ♥QT765 ♦87 ♣AK4

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
1NT can make by N/S
1♦ can make by N/S
1♠ can make by E/W
2♣ can make by E/W

Analysis

If South opens up 1♥ I think North will either "Pass" or bid 1NT. If North does bid 1NT then I forced a "Pass" upon South because they only had 16 HCP. North is better off bidding 1NT because that contract will (just!) make and 1♥ can go down.

What happens if South opens 1NT?

Well that all depends on what East does. Will they bid 2♥ rather than letting South play in 1NT? Certainly some will.

2♥ will certainly go down. Even down 1 is bad (minus 100) since N/S can only make 7 tricks in 1NT (for 90 points).

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to the right spot (1NT) OR by bidding 1NT East is more encouraged to come in with their suit -- the one South has!

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.

Skip to the table!

After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1♥ so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1♥ vs 1NT

How will I analyze this?

I started by analyzing open 1NT vs opening 1♠. I have the results I have looked at so far in this post:
1NT vs 1♠

I am continuing the fun by looking at another 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP but this time five ♥ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website: http://playbridge.com/

You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.

So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♥, two or three ♠, two or three ♦, two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.

Double Dummy?

Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down.

On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.

64 Hands?

Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer?

No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♥ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♥ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.

How will Opener show their values if they open 1♥?

Good question. I need to be consistent.

If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

If they have 15 HCP I will just have them rebid 2NT if Responder responds in a new suit at the 2 level to show 10 or more High Card Values. They might miss a few games if Responder has 10 or 11 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 10 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience.

If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit.

If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time.

This is the table that will hold all the results.

Summary - Open 1NT or 1♥?

Number of Hands Studied	Which wins?	Percentage
23	1♥ - 4 1NT - 5 Doesn't Matter - 14	1♥ - 17.39% 1NT - 21.74% Doesn't Matter - 60.87%

Hands	Analysis	Verdict
Hand 1 Dealer: North None Vul North ♠J2 ♥AKQT8 ♦A76 ♣K84 West ♠K73 ♥97654 ♦J542 ♣J East ♠65 ♥J2 ♦T983 ♣QT762 South ♠AQT984 ♥3 ♦KQ ♣A953 6NT can make by N/S N/S 6♠ N/S 6♥ N/S 4♦ N/S 4♣	Shouldn't matter. Either way the partnership will get to a small slam and make. For more information click here.	Doesn't matter
Hand 2 Dealer: East N/S Vul North ♠T942 ♥QJT ♦A84 ♣J32 West ♠KQ873 ♥732 ♦QT652 ♣ East ♠J6 ♥A9865 ♦K97 ♣AK9 South ♠A5 ♥K4 ♦J3 ♣QT87654	This is where I put the analysis for hand 2	My verdict for 2
Hand 3 Dealer: South E/W Vul North ♠872 ♥93 ♦QJT32 ♣Q83 West ♠QJT3 ♥4 ♦K54 ♣JT952 East ♠654 ♥AKJ82 ♦A96 ♣76 South ♠AK9 ♥QT765 ♦87 ♣AK4 1NT can make by N/S N/S 1♦ E/W 1♠ E/W 2♣	1NT gets N/S to the best possible place -- either in 1NT themselves or 2♥ by East. For details you can check out this post: Hand 3	1NT
Hand 4 Dealer: West Both Vul North ♠KQJ2 ♥J ♦AQT8643 ♣9 West ♠A84 ♥AKQ64 ♦752 ♣K3 East ♠93 ♥8753 ♦J9 ♣QT872 South ♠T765 ♥T92 ♦K ♣AJ654 N/S 5♠ N/S 5♦ N/S 1NT E/W can make 2♥	Shouldn't matter what West opens. North has a VERY strong distributional hand and won't be stopped with either bid!	Doesn't matter.
Hand 5 Dealer: North N/S Vul North ♠AK8 ♥KQ873 ♦K98 ♣T7 West ♠J9753 ♥ ♦AJ ♣Q86543 East ♠T ♥J9642 ♦T2 ♣AKJ92 South ♠Q642 ♥AT5 ♦Q76543 ♣ N/S 4♥ N/S 4♦ N/S 3♠ E/W 5♣	Even with the bad trump break (East has FIVE of them) N/S can make a game. If North opens 1NT they will not find their best fit.	1♥
Hand 6 Dealer: East E/W Vul North ♠Q5 ♥973 ♦KJ8542 ♣73 West ♠832 ♥AK ♦3 ♣AKQT862 East ♠AK ♥QT865 ♦AQT ♣J54 South ♠JT9764 ♥J42 ♦976 ♣9 E/W 7NT E/W 7♥ E/W 7♣	I think either way West will force to a slam. Probably not the grand but opening either way won't help.	Doesn't Matter
Hand 7 Dealer: South All Vul North ♠Q3 ♥J4 ♦AQ763 ♣QT65 West ♠JT87652 ♥53 ♦J ♣KJ2 East ♠A ♥T872 ♦T9542 ♣A73 South ♠K94 ♥AKQ96 ♦K8 ♣984 N/S 4NT 3♥ can make by N/S	N/S will get to play in 3NT no matter what they open. North has enough to bid at the 2 level and that is all South will need to bid game themselves.	Doesn't matter
Hand 8 Dealer: West None Vul North ♠83 ♥QJT9 ♦KT8543 ♣4 West ♠AT2 ♥AK764 ♦A76 ♣J9 East ♠Q764 ♥8 ♦Q92 ♣Q7653 South ♠KJ95 ♥532 ♦J ♣AKT82 E/W 2♠ E/W 1NT E/W 2♣ can make by E/W E/W 1♥ E/W 1♦	West will play in 1NT regardless of what they open.	Doesn't matter
Hand 9 Dealer: North E/W Vul North ♠Q6 ♥AQ875 ♦AQ9 ♣JT4 West ♠942 ♥JT9 ♦8753 ♣KQ8 East ♠AJ8 ♥63 ♦KJT6 ♣A962 South ♠KT753 ♥K42 ♦42 ♣753 N/S 2♥ N/S 1♠ E/W 2♦ E/W 2♣	Opening 1♥ will get N/S to 2♥ -- even if East makes a Take Out Double. Opening 1NT gets N/S to 2♠ since South will transfer. ♥ plays a trick better.	1♥
Hand 10 Dealer: East All Vul North ♠54 ♥T764 ♦KJ73 ♣632 West ♠Q9763 ♥2 ♦QT42 ♣J87 East ♠AT2 ♥KJ953 ♦A9 ♣KQT South ♠KJ8 ♥AQ8 ♦865 ♣A954 E/W 3♠ E/W 1NT E/W 1♥ E/W 1♦	1NT gets E/W to the best possible place (♠) at a much safer level. For details you can check out this post: Hand 10	1NT
Hand 11 Dealer: South None Vul North ♠KJT8 ♥76 ♦KQ ♣QJT72 West ♠A976 ♥843 ♦J963 ♣K8 East ♠32 ♥QJ9 ♦T752 ♣6543 South ♠Q54 ♥AKT52 ♦A84 ♣A9 S 6NT S 6♠ S 6♥ N 5NT N 5♠ N 5♥	Either will get South (not North!) to 3NT.	Doesn't matter
Hand 12 Dealer: West N/S Vul North ♠KT63 ♥Q54 ♦JT52 ♣65 West ♠AQ5 ♥KJT86 ♦AQ8 ♣84 East ♠42 ♥A93 ♦K963 ♣AKT9 South ♠J987 ♥72 ♦74 ♣QJ732 E/W 6NT E/W 6♥ W 6♦ E 5♦	NT plays better than ♥ so that is the winning bid. If you open 1NT you do not find the ♥ fit which is a good contract but not the best.	1NT
Hand 13 Dealer: North All Vul North ♠K4 ♥A8543 ♦AK7 ♣Q52 West ♠T9876 ♥Q ♦Q8 ♣T9643 East ♠A53 ♥T9762 ♦632 ♣AJ South ♠QJ2 ♥KJ ♦JT954 ♣K87 N/S 5NT N/S 5♦	No matter what N/S will reach 3NT -- which is where they belong.	Doesn't matter
Hand 14 Dealer: East None Vul North ♠53 ♥QT95 ♦K754 ♣AQ8 West ♠JT7 ♥J4 ♦AT2 ♣JT732 East ♠AK6 ♥AK762 ♦Q96 ♣64 South ♠Q9842 ♥83 ♦J83 ♣K95 N/S 1NT E/W 2♣ E/W 1♠ E/W 1♥ E/W 1♦	No matter what E/W will get to 1NT -- either by East if they open 1NT or West if they respond 1NT to East's open 1♥ bid.	Doesn't matter
Hand 15 Dealer: South N/S Vul North ♠98652 ♥T52 ♦52 ♣T96 West ♠KT ♥K86 ♦KQJT94 ♣72 East ♠AQ43 ♥A3 ♦76 ♣Q8543 South ♠J7 ♥QJ974 ♦A83 ♣AKJ E 4NT W 3NT E/W 4♦ E/W 3♣ E/W 1♠	I think either way West will come in with their ♦ suit and N/S will stop bidding.	Doesn't matter
Hand 16 Dealer: West E/W Vul North ♠J954 ♥A92 ♦J962 ♣Q9 West ♠KT7 ♥KQ754 ♦A7 ♣K82 East ♠8632 ♥J6 ♦KQ543 ♣A3 South ♠AQ ♥T83 ♦T8 ♣JT7654 E/W 4NT E/W 3♠ E/W 3♥ E/W 2♦ E/W 1♣	1NT works best because you will bid your game that makes. For details you can check out this post: Hand 16	1NT
Hand 17 Dealer: North None Vul North ♠A4 ♥AQ873 ♦Q63 ♣QJ4 West ♠Q6 ♥KT9 ♦JT954 ♣A75 East ♠KJ98 ♥J65 ♦AK72 ♣93 South ♠T7532 ♥42 ♦8 ♣KT862 N/S 3♣ N/S 1♥ N/S 1♠ W 3♦ E 2♦ E/W 1NT	1♥ allows the partnership to stay LOW in the bidding -- which they need to on this hand. For details you can check out this post: Hand 17	1♥
Hand 18 Dealer: East N/S Vul North ♠J65 ♥72 ♦JT6 ♣KT954 West ♠KT7 ♥KT54 ♦K82 ♣QJ3 East ♠AQ2 ♥AQJ86 ♦Q4 ♣762 South ♠9843 ♥93 ♦A9753 ♣A8 E/W 3NT E/W 3♥ E/W 1♠ E/W 1♣ N/S 1♦	1NT gives the best chance of getting to the game that makes (3NT) and avoiding the game that goes down. For details you can check out this post: Hand 18	1NT
Hand 19 Dealer: South E/W Vul North ♠T85 ♥5 ♦AK862 ♣QJT4 West ♠A72 ♥KJ4 ♦T975 ♣875 East ♠J963 ♥T732 ♦Q3 ♣A93 South ♠KQ4 ♥AQ986 ♦J4 ♣K62 N/S 2NT N/S 2♠ N/S 2♥ N/S 3♦ N/S 3♣	1♥ allows the bidding to remain low and stop in a makeable contract. For details you can check out this post: Hand 19	1♥
Hand 20 Dealer: West All Vul North ♠A53 ♥3 ♦Q7 ♣AKJ9873 West ♠QJ4 ♥AKQ84 ♦K65 ♣64 East ♠KT82 ♥J9752 ♦943 ♣Q South ♠976 ♥T6 ♦AJT82 ♣T52	This is where I put the analysis for hand 20	My verdict for 20
Hand 21 Dealer: North N/S Vul North ♠KQ ♥AKT52 ♦932 ♣A74 West ♠864 ♥QJ964 ♦K ♣QT65 East ♠75 ♥73 ♦AQJT76 ♣K98 South ♠AJT932 ♥8 ♦854 ♣J32 N/S 3♠ N/S 1NT E/W 2♦	I think either way N/S will end up in 2♠. If North opens 1NT, South will transfer and "Pass". If Norht opens 1♥ and rebids 1NT (like I said they would) then South will bid 1♠ followed by 2♠ showing a weak hand with a six card suit.	Doesn't matter
Hand 22 Dealer: East E/W Vul North ♠T5 ♥Q9 ♦K3 ♣J986532 West ♠432 ♥KJ65 ♦854 ♣QT7 East ♠98 ♥AT832 ♦AT2 ♣AK4 South ♠AKQJ76 ♥74 ♦QJ976 ♣ N/S 4♠ N/S 4♦ E 2♥ W 1♥ E/W 1NT	South has a very strong hand. If they evaluate it properly I don't think East opening 1NT or 1♥ will make any difference. South will bid to the number of ♠ they feel they can make.	Doesn't matter
Hand 23 Dealer: South All Vul North ♠T4 ♥T72 ♦KJT932 ♣95 West ♠AJ96532 ♥AK ♦A ♣864 East ♠7 ♥943 ♦Q874 ♣QJT72 South ♠KQ8 ♥QJ865 ♦65 ♣AK3 E/W 4♣ E/W 4♠ E/W 1NT N/S 2♥ N/S 1♦	West is going to get in there and bid that suit no matter what South opens.	Doesn't matter
Hand 24 Dealer: West None Vul North ♠QJ7 ♥6 ♦T82 ♣AQ6542 West ♠KT3 ♥QJT83 ♦AJ ♣KJT East ♠A9 ♥AK97542 ♦K73 ♣3 South ♠86542 ♥ ♦Q9654 ♣987 W 6NT E/W 6♥ E 6NT	I think both opening bids will get you to a small slam in ♥.	Doesn't matter.
Hand 25 Dealer: North E/W Vul North ♠QJ9 ♥KQ932 ♦K62 ♣A5 West ♠K73 ♥T74 ♦T543 ♣J96 East ♠A82 ♥A6 ♦AQJ9 ♣KQ84 South ♠T654 ♥J85 ♦87 ♣T732	This is where I put the analysis for hand 25	My verdict for 25
Hand 26 Dealer: East All Vul North ♠8 ♥JT65 ♦Q52 ♣98732 West ♠KQ954 ♥K87 ♦J3 ♣K64 East ♠JT ♥AQ943 ♦AT4 ♣AQ5 South ♠A7632 ♥2 ♦K9876 ♣JT	This is where I put the analysis for hand 26	My verdict for 26
Hand 27 Dealer: South None Vul North ♠A72 ♥T862 ♦Q53 ♣AJT West ♠T4 ♥93 ♦9764 ♣Q9654 East ♠J9863 ♥74 ♦AKJ2 ♣K2 South ♠KQ5 ♥AKQJ5 ♦T8 ♣873	This is where I put the analysis for hand 27	My verdict for 27
Hand 28 Dealer: West N/S Vul North ♠AT6 ♥K83 ♦KT874 ♣53 West ♠J85 ♥AQ972 ♦AQ2 ♣Q7 East ♠Q9732 ♥T4 ♦J3 ♣K642 South ♠K4 ♥J65 ♦965 ♣AJT98	This is where I put the analysis for hand 28	My verdict for 28
Hand 29 Dealer: North All Vul North ♠AK ♥QJ653 ♦T53 ♣AK7 West ♠74 ♥KT9 ♦KQ864 ♣Q62 East ♠J98532 ♥A42 ♦72 ♣T5 South ♠QT6 ♥87 ♦AJ9 ♣J9843	This is where I put the analysis for hand 29	My verdict for 29
Hand 30 Dealer: East None Vul North ♠Q52 ♥T42 ♦QJ94 ♣J92 West ♠AKJ ♥Q ♦T87532 ♣A83 East ♠84 ♥AKJ63 ♦AK6 ♣754 South ♠T9763 ♥9875 ♦ ♣KQT6	This is where I put the analysis for hand 30	My verdict for 30
Hand 31 Dealer: South N/S Vul North ♠Q8 ♥Q8 ♦9862 ♣QJT96 West ♠K742 ♥K52 ♦T543 ♣K8 East ♠T965 ♥T64 ♦KQ7 ♣A52 South ♠AJ3 ♥AJ973 ♦AJ ♣743 N/S 1NT N/S 2♣ N/S 1♥ E/W 2♠ E/W 1♦	Either way N/S will get to 1NT. If South opens 1♥, North will respond 1NT and play it there. If South opens 1NT they will play it there.	Doesn't matter
Hand 32 Dealer: West E/W Vul North ♠JT6 ♥32 ♦QJ984 ♣965 West ♠AK8 ♥T9764 ♦A3 ♣AJ3 East ♠752 ♥AKQ ♦KT2 ♣T842 South ♠Q943 ♥J85 ♦765 ♣KQ7	This is where I put the analysis for hand 32	My verdict for 32
Hand 33 Dealer: North North ♠97 ♥AKJ62 ♦KQ2 ♣A64 West ♠KJ84 ♥54 ♦A9743 ♣Q3 East ♠T652 ♥T8 ♦JT86 ♣KJ9 South ♠AQ3 ♥Q973 ♦5 ♣T8752	This is where I put the analysis for hand 33	My verdict for 33
Hand 34 Dealer: East North ♠T43 ♥85 ♦QJT654 ♣87 West ♠KQ62 ♥A97 ♦97 ♣AT94 East ♠A85 ♥KQJ64 ♦K32 ♣Q6 South ♠J97 ♥T32 ♦A8 ♣KJ532	This is where I put the analysis for hand 34	My verdict for 34
Hand 35 Dealer: South North ♠J82 ♥QJ8 ♦KQ72 ♣T74 West ♠6 ♥T532 ♦J9543 ♣J52 East ♠KQ97543 ♥9 ♦6 ♣AK98 South ♠AT ♥AK764 ♦AT8 ♣Q63	This is where I put the analysis for hand 35	My verdict for 35
Hand 36 Dealer: West North ♠KQJT7 ♥3 ♦8 ♣AQ9862 West ♠A86 ♥AK954 ♦J52 ♣KJ East ♠9543 ♥QJ762 ♦T6 ♣73 South ♠2 ♥T8 ♦AKQ9743 ♣T54	This is where I put the analysis for hand 36	My verdict for 36
Hand 37 Dealer: North North ♠AJ ♥QT963 ♦KJ3 ♣AJ7 West ♠T7542 ♥854 ♦987 ♣T4 East ♠Q983 ♥72 ♦T652 ♣K32 South ♠K6 ♥AKJ ♦AQ4 ♣Q9865	This is where I put the analysis for hand 37	My verdict for 37
Hand 38 Dealer: East North ♠T72 ♥A53 ♦A632 ♣J73 West ♠9 ♥K74 ♦J984 ♣K9865 East ♠A85 ♥QT986 ♦KQT ♣AT South ♠KQJ643 ♥J2 ♦75 ♣Q42	This is where I put the analysis for hand 38	My verdict for 38
Hand 39 Dealer: South North ♠A765432 ♥5 ♦T4 ♣KJ5 West ♠JT9 ♥Q94 ♦AK853 ♣94 East ♠Q ♥T873 ♦762 ♣AT763 South ♠K8 ♥AKJ62 ♦QJ9 ♣Q82	This is where I put the analysis for hand 39	My verdict for 39
Hand 40 Dealer: West North ♠A52 ♥KJ853 ♦76 ♣K72 West ♠K73 ♥AQ642 ♦A95 ♣A5 East ♠QJT98 ♥9 ♦43 ♣JT964 South ♠64 ♥T7 ♦KQJT82 ♣Q83	This is where I put the analysis for hand 40	My verdict for 40
Hand 41 Dealer: North North ♠KT7 ♥KQT98 ♦AK4 ♣98 West ♠QJ543 ♥75 ♦QJT ♣K43 East ♠986 ♥A64 ♦852 ♣AQ76 South ♠A2 ♥J32 ♦9763 ♣JT52	This is where I put the analysis for hand 41	My verdict for 41
Hand 42 Dealer: East North ♠K72 ♥5 ♦AJT842 ♣K98 West ♠J986 ♥A2 ♦65 ♣76542 East ♠Q5 ♥QJ874 ♦KQ7 ♣AQJ South ♠AT43 ♥KT963 ♦93 ♣T3	This is where I put the analysis for hand 42	My verdict for 42
Hand 43 Dealer: South North ♠KQ653 ♥ ♦5 ♣KT96432 West ♠AT4 ♥T972 ♦KT98 ♣87 East ♠92 ♥J543 ♦AQJ642 ♣5 South ♠J87 ♥AKQ86 ♦73 ♣AQJ	This is where I put the analysis for hand 43	My verdict for 43
Hand 44 Dealer: West North ♠Q7 ♥Q62 ♦A876 ♣KJT6 West ♠AJ ♥JT975 ♦KJ9 ♣AQ7 East ♠K832 ♥A8 ♦52 ♣98532 South ♠T9654 ♥K43 ♦QT43 ♣4	This is where I put the analysis for hand 44	My verdict for 44
Hand 45 Dealer: North North ♠KQJ ♥QJT93 ♦64 ♣AQ2 West ♠7652 ♥K62 ♦9853 ♣87 East ♠A ♥8754 ♦AKQJ72 ♣93 South ♠T9843 ♥A ♦T ♣KJT654	This is where I put the analysis for hand 45	My verdict for 45
Hand 46 Dealer: East North ♠K8732 ♥742 ♦K8 ♣742 West ♠4 ♥AT63 ♦QT652 ♣KJ6 East ♠QT6 ♥KQJ98 ♦A3 ♣A83 South ♠AJ95 ♥5 ♦J974 ♣QT95	This is where I put the analysis for hand 46	My verdict for 46
Hand 47 Dealer: South North ♠J874 ♥AT73 ♦985 ♣73 West ♠KQT2 ♥9 ♦642 ♣AQJ96 East ♠953 ♥K84 ♦KQT7 ♣T82 South ♠A6 ♥QJ652 ♦AJ3 ♣K54	This is where I put the analysis for hand 47	My verdict for 47
Hand 48 Dealer: West North ♠T976 ♥T7 ♦AQJ4 ♣J85 West ♠A3 ♥A9852 ♦K82 ♣AQ4 East ♠854 ♥KJ6 ♦73 ♣K9763 South ♠KQJ2 ♥Q43 ♦T965 ♣T2	This is where I put the analysis for hand 48	My verdict for 48
Hand 49 Dealer: North North ♠K85 ♥AJT96 ♦KQ ♣A94 West ♠A72 ♥743 ♦532 ♣JT32 East ♠QT9 ♥Q85 ♦J987 ♣Q76 South ♠J643 ♥K2 ♦AT64 ♣K85	This is where I put the analysis for hand 49	My verdict for 49
Hand 50 Dealer: East North ♠QJT432 ♥853 ♦8 ♣A64 West ♠87 ♥64 ♦AQJT7532 ♣3 East ♠96 ♥AKJ92 ♦K96 ♣KQJ South ♠AK5 ♥QT7 ♦4 ♣T98752	This is where I put the analysis for hand 50	My verdict for 50
Hand 51 Dealer: South North ♠J63 ♥AQJ6 ♦K976 ♣52 West ♠KT87 ♥532 ♦8532 ♣43 East ♠A952 ♥8 ♦T4 ♣AKT876 South ♠Q4 ♥KT974 ♦AQJ ♣QJ9	This is where I put the analysis for hand 51	My verdict for 51
Hand 52 Dealer: West North ♠Q8 ♥A74 ♦A874 ♣8654 West ♠A94 ♥KQJ85 ♦QJ ♣QJ9 East ♠K6532 ♥32 ♦K ♣AKT73 South ♠JT7 ♥T96 ♦T96532 ♣2	This is where I put the analysis for hand 52	My verdict for 52
Hand 53 Dealer: North North ♠K4 ♥KQJT3 ♦AJ3 ♣Q83 West ♠Q732 ♥872 ♦765 ♣AK9 East ♠T965 ♥5 ♦Q9842 ♣542 South ♠AJ8 ♥A964 ♦KT ♣JT76	This is where I put the analysis for hand 53	My verdict for 53
Hand 54 Dealer: East North ♠762 ♥AK5 ♦AJ86532 ♣ West ♠KT54 ♥Q ♦94 ♣KT7653 East ♠AJ ♥T6432 ♦KQT ♣AQ8 South ♠Q983 ♥J987 ♦7 ♣J942	This is where I put the analysis for hand 54	My verdict for 54
Hand 55 Dealer: South North ♠KJ8 ♥T64 ♦832 ♣QJ87 West ♠QT952 ♥9 ♦AKT5 ♣653 East ♠64 ♥KQ52 ♦J96 ♣KT42 South ♠A73 ♥AJ873 ♦Q74 ♣A9	This is where I put the analysis for hand 55	My verdict for 55
Hand 56 Dealer: West North ♠972 ♥K6 ♦K632 ♣AT92 West ♠AJ6 ♥QJ752 ♦A7 ♣QJ6 East ♠KT5 ♥AT4 ♦T9854 ♣53 South ♠Q843 ♥983 ♦QJ ♣K874	This is where I put the analysis for hand 56	My verdict for 56
Hand 57 Dealer: North North ♠AQJ ♥Q6532 ♦A7 ♣A76 West ♠KT83 ♥9 ♦KT853 ♣K83 East ♠97542 ♥AKJ ♦J62 ♣T2 South ♠6 ♥T874 ♦Q94 ♣QJ954	This is where I put the analysis for hand 57	My verdict for 57
Hand 58 Dealer: East North ♠JT6 ♥64 ♦AK98764 ♣3 West ♠A85 ♥ ♦53 ♣KT987654 East ♠432 ♥KQ753 ♦QJ ♣AQJ South ♠KQ97 ♥AJT982 ♦T2 ♣2	This is where I put the analysis for hand 58	My verdict for 58
Hand 59 Dealer: South North ♠AK76 ♥J76 ♦2 ♣KQT96 West ♠T42 ♥T983 ♦KQJ63 ♣4 East ♠953 ♥4 ♦AT54 ♣J8752 South ♠QJ8 ♥AKQ52 ♦987 ♣A3	This is where I put the analysis for hand 59	My verdict for 59
Hand 60 Dealer: West North ♠J62 ♥42 ♦Q973 ♣AJ43 West ♠AT9 ♥AKJ98 ♦T2 ♣K98 East ♠Q4 ♥Q63 ♦854 ♣QT652 South ♠K8753 ♥T75 ♦AKJ6 ♣7	This is where I put the analysis for hand 60	My verdict for 60
Hand 61 Dealer: North North ♠K96 ♥Q9762 ♦AK ♣A43 West ♠A82 ♥K3 ♦QT976 ♣QT9 East ♠QT4 ♥AJ854 ♦5 ♣K876 South ♠J753 ♥T ♦J8432 ♣J52	This is where I put the analysis for hand 61	My verdict for 61
Hand 62 Dealer: East North ♠AJ92 ♥9876 ♦J7654 ♣ West ♠Q4 ♥JT2 ♦AT8 ♣T8543 East ♠T73 ♥AQ543 ♦92 ♣AKQ South ♠K865 ♥K ♦KQ3 ♣J9762	This is where I put the analysis for hand 62	My verdict for 62
Hand 63 Dealer: South North ♠KT63 ♥ ♦QT952 ♣7632 West ♠AJ2 ♥T9 ♦AJ4 ♣KQ984 East ♠975 ♥KJ8732 ♦863 ♣J South ♠Q84 ♥AQ654 ♦K7 ♣AT5	This is where I put the analysis for hand 63	My verdict for 63
Hand 64 Dealer: West North ♠JT98 ♥ ♦JT987 ♣QT98 West ♠73 ♥AKQJ2 ♦K54 ♣KJ6 East ♠AKQ6 ♥8763 ♦3 ♣A752 South ♠542 ♥T954 ♦AQ62 ♣43	This is where I put the analysis for hand 64	My verdict for 64

Hand 1 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 1 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the first hand I generated with ♥ as the major:

Hand 1

	North ♠J2 ♥AKQT8 ♦A76 ♣K84
West ♠K73 ♥97654 ♦J542 ♣J		East ♠65 ♥J2 ♦T983 ♣QT762
	South ♠AQT984 ♥3 ♦KQ ♣A953

Dealer is North and no one is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
6NT can make by N/S
6♠ can make by N/S
6♥ can make by N/S
4♦ can make by N/S
4♣ can make by N/S

Analysis

If North opens up 1NT I think South certainly has a slam try in ♠ which North will certainly accept. Playing normal Standard American Yellow Card 3♠ is a slam try. But there are many other ways to show a slam try depending on the tools you play.

What happens if North opens 1♥?

South will start with 1♠. Now North will show their point count by bidding 2NT. South will certainly get the partnership to 6♠ now.

So I think this one won't really matter what North opens -- either way South will get the partnership to a 6♠ slam which will easily make.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 25 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 25 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-fifth hand I generated:

	North ♠AJ654 ♥AJ9 ♦A3 ♣K85
West ♠ ♥T754 ♦KQ75 ♣QJT93		East ♠KQT87 ♥82 ♦J86 ♣A64
	South ♠932 ♥KQ63 ♦T942 ♣72

Dealer is North and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
1♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by E/W
2♣ can make by E/W
1♥ can make by W
1♦ can make by E/W

Analysis

If North opens up 1NT I think that will probably end the auction. West might be able to say something if they can show a two suited hand but their hand is not great and someone is rated to have the ♠ -- probably Partner! Plus if East happens to come in with 2♠ they are in trouble!

What happens if North opens 1♠?

Will South raise to 2♠? They just might. If they do, North will invite a game but the partnership is already too high with the 2♠ bid.

So I think this one the opening bid of 1NT wins. It allows for the fact that East (or West) might come into the bidding and the Opponents will get too high OR it stops the N/S partnership from getting too high in their ♠ fit.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 24 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 24 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-fourth hand I generated:

	North ♠KT ♥AK8 ♦653 ♣Q9875
West ♠AQJ83 ♥Q4 ♦K92 ♣K62		East ♠954 ♥JT52 ♦QJ8 ♣T43
	South ♠762 ♥9763 ♦AT74 ♣AJ

Dealer is West and everyone vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
1NT can make by N/S
2♦ can make by N/S
2♣ can make by N/S
1♥ can make by N/S
1♠ can make by E/W

Analysis

If West opens up 1NT I think this is where they will play.

What happens if West opens 1♠?

I also think this is where they will play! No one really has a bid after. North just might risk a 2♣ overcall but it is such a bad suit they really shouldn't.

1NT can make -- but by N/S!!! If East plays in 1NT they will certainly go down on a fourth best ♣ lead.

1♠ does (just barely!) make. So I am giving 1♠ the win.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 23 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 23 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-third hand I generated:

	North ♠JT ♥74 ♦QT953 ♣A764
West ♠753 ♥KJT963 ♦J6 ♣T2		East ♠KQ4 ♥852 ♦K74 ♣KJ83
	South ♠A9862 ♥AQ ♦A82 ♣Q95

Dealer is South and everyone vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by N/S
4♦ can make by N
2NT can make by S
3♦ can make by S
1NT can make by N
2♣ can make by N/S
1♥ can make by E/W

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think everyone else will "Pass". West is pretty weak to be coming in vulnerable. (Or even non-vulnerable!) This is where they will play.

What happens if South opens 1♠?

North will respond 1NT and I said South would "Pass" with 16 HCP.

South is better off playing in 1NT IF when North is playing 1NT East leads a ♥. But I don't think East will. So North will also take 8 tricks in NT.

So I think this one is a draw. Really doesn't matter what South opens.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 22 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 22 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-second hand I generated:

	North ♠75 ♥KJ86 ♦AK984 ♣KJ
West ♠K962 ♥3 ♦J6 ♣Q87632		East ♠AQJ83 ♥A9 ♦T53 ♣A94
	South ♠T4 ♥QT7542 ♦Q72 ♣T5

Dealer is East and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
4♠ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by E/W
1NT can make by E/W
3♥ can make by N/S
2♦ can make by N/S

Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think South will "Pass" but what will West do?

They are too weak to bid Stayman to find a four-four ♠ fit.

West will either "Pass" or make a 2♠ (Relay) bid. 2♠ forces East to say 3♣ which West will "Pass".

If West passes the 1NT opening bid North will probably come in. Since East has a good ♠ suit I said they would now show it. West should certainly bid game now.

But that relies on North coming in.

What happens if East opens 1♠?

West will bid 2♠.

Will North come in? Probably.

When North comes in I said that East would not explore further with 15 or 16. However I think West will bid at least 3♠ to show their fourth ♠.

That might be all the encouragement East needs to bid the game.

Both these rely on North to bid.

What happens if North does NOT bid.

You find your best fit when East opens 1♠. So that is the winning call.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 21 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 21 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twenty-first hand I generated:

	North ♠KQJ74 ♥J2 ♦K93 ♣AK5
West ♠A86 ♥Q3 ♦QJ75 ♣QJ72		East ♠T95 ♥K8 ♦AT42 ♣T843
	South ♠32 ♥AT97654 ♦86 ♣96

Dealer is North and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♥ can make by N/S
2♠ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W
1♦ can make by E/W

Analysis

If North opens up 1NT I think South will transfer to ♥ and "Pass". This is where they will play.

What happens if North opens 1♠?

The only thing saving the partnership here is a 3♥ bid by South showing a weak hand with a long suit. But even then North might raise.

If South passes 1♠ they will play it there.

If South bids 1NT I have stipulated North will raise to 2NT to show their balanced 18-19. Will South be able to get out in 3♥? Unclear.

How do the contracts compare? Playing in ♥ is the best but N/S only take 9 tricks. They have four losers. I feel it is easy for the Defence to cash their four tricks also. When West is in with their A♠ they can easily shift to the Q♦.

Playing in ♠ is the next best but N/S only take 8 tricks against best defence. If the Opponents start by cashing their A♦ Declarer will make an extra trick.

Playing in 1NT really depends on the lead. Best if West leads a ♦ but here they would lead a low ♦ and would East put in the T♦? Unclear. I can see this making many overtricks because of the tricky defence.

But Declarer will have to give up a ♥ trick in order to get six back. They need the entry to their hand.

If I am assuming best Declarer play I will also assume best Defence. So 1NT will only make -- E/W will get the tricks they deserve.

So opening 1NT wins here. N/S find their fit without getting the partnership too high.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 20 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 20 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the twentieth hand I generated:

	North ♠KQ986 ♥Q3 ♦K72 ♣T73
West ♠AJT75 ♥85 ♦AQ9 ♣A86		East ♠42 ♥AKT92 ♦JT ♣KQJ5
	South ♠3 ♥J764 ♦86543 ♣942

Dealer is West and everyone vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
5NT can make by E/W
4♠ can make by W
4♥ can make by E/W
5♣ can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E
3♦ can make by E/W

Analysis

If West opens up 1NT I think East will transfer to ♥ and bid 3NT. This is where they will play.

What happens if West opens 1♠?

East will bid 2♥ and the partnership will still get to 3NT.

If West opens 1NT they are likely to get a ♠ lead from North. But either way Declarer has 11 tricks no matter what North leads.

So I think this one is a draw. Really doesn't matter what West opens.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 19 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 19 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the ninteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠JT8 ♥6 ♦Q87652 ♣Q84
West ♠74 ♥A954 ♦K4 ♣AJ732		East ♠A93 ♥J8732 ♦T9 ♣K65
	South ♠KQ652 ♥KQT ♦AJ3 ♣T9

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
2♠ can make by N/S
2♥ can make by E/W
2♦ can make by N/S
2♣ can make by E/W

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think West will "Pass" and North will find a way to show their ♦ suit. Probably a relay bid if they play those.

So N/S will end up in 3♦.

What happens if South opens 1♠?

North will raise to 2♠ and that will end the auction. South is too weak to make a game try with only 15 HCP.

How does ♠ do realistically?

Declarer should find 8 tricks pretty easily. They have five losers.

Playing in 3♦ you have the same five losers.

So I'm going to give 1♠ the win. It allows you to find your fit and play at a lower level.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 18 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 18 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the eighteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠J642 ♥K82 ♦J3 ♣Q743
West ♠9853 ♥J64 ♦T864 ♣82		East ♠AKQT7 ♥75 ♦A95 ♣KJ5
	South ♠ ♥AQT93 ♦KQ72 ♣AT96

Dealer is East and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
5♥ can make by N
4♥ can make by S
4♣ can make by N/S
2NT can make by N

Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think South will find a bid. But what?

They have a very strong hand -- do they start with a Double?

With a void perhaps not.

Let's say South bids their ♥ suit. Will North raise? Unlikely.

However I did say that East would come in with their suit if it was good. So East will now bid 2♠.

South will probably now bid a minor.

North will go back to the ♥ suit but will they bid game?

If North doesn't bid game will South?

Maybe but maybe not. North has not shown ANY encouragement.

What happens if North opens 1♠?

South could overcall 2♥. North will raise to 3♥ and South will bid the game knowing Partner has a little bit of something.

How does ♥ do realistically?

I think it will do just fine. East has opened the bidding and is likely to have the K♣ so Declarer just has to get themselves to Dummy and play the Q♣. East can cover with the K♣ but Declarer will win the A♣ and let the Defence have their J♣. One ♣ loser.

However they do have to be worried about knocking out the A♦ in addition to the ♣. If Declarer takes out trump they could lose control. But since East is always getting in that J♠ in Dummy will help.

So I am going to give 1NT the win because it is easier for N/S to get to game if East opens the bidding 1♠.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 15 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 15 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the fifteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠Q9 ♥T ♦J42 ♣AJ98654
West ♠42 ♥J6532 ♦75 ♣QT32		East ♠AK53 ♥KQ74 ♦QT863 ♣
	South ♠JT876 ♥A98 ♦AK9 ♣K7

Dealer is South and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by N
3♥ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
1♠ can make by S
1♦ can make by N/S

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think West will "Pass" and North might find a way to show their ♣ suit.

Standard American this would probably be a 3♣ bid showing an invitational hand with at least six ♣.

I think East at these colours (vulnerability) will chance a Double (take out).

South will "Pass" and West will bid 3♥.

Will North bid again? Probably not. Their suit isn't that great.

If South opens 1NT and North is feeling a little feisty they might even bid 3NT hoping their ♣ suit runs. It doesn't and South will go down a few on a ♥ lead. North might feel a little sheepish with that bid but they shouldn't. They took a chance and it just didn't work out. (I would have tried it.)

What if North opens 1♠?

West will "Pass". North will bid 1NT since they do not have the values to bid a suit at the 2 level.

What will East do? Here it is not so clear however given the state of 2 level overcalls these days I feel confident that East will overcall 2♦ with this hand.

South will "Pass" and so will West.

North might just "Pass" and let them play there. This would be good for N/S since East will go down a couple of tricks. (This is why you should have a good suit to overcall kids!)

North might bid 3♣ but with three losing ♦ and no assurance South has any ♣ at all they probably won't.

So I think 1♠ will be the best possible opening bid for N/S. They are less likely to get into trouble and it is more likely the Opponent's do.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Hand 14 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 14 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the Fourteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠QJ4 ♥T876 ♦T43 ♣J86
West ♠7 ♥42 ♦AQ865 ♣AT952		East ♠T9832 ♥AKQ ♦KJ ♣Q43
	South ♠AK65 ♥J953 ♦972 ♣K7

Dealer is East and no one is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make by E/W
5♦ can make by E/W
5♣ can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E/W
2♥ can make by E/W

Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think West will either bid 3NT or if they have ways to show 5-5 in the minors they will do that.

East will bid 3NT because they don't care about the minors.

So they will end up in 3NT.

If East opens up 1♠ it now depends on what system the partnership plays.

Playing Standard American West will bid 2♦. East can now bid 3NT since they know they have the values for game. West will "Pass".

Playing 2/1 Game Forcing over 1♠ West will be forced to bid 1NT. Which would be forcing.

East would rebid 2♣.

West would do something -- maybe 3♣ or even something stronger.

Either way East will bid 3NT.

So I think all roads lead to 3NT.

Which will make easily.

I don't even think the lead will matter. You won't get a ♠ lead if East opens 1♠ but East has 9 tricks. Should they try for a tenth if it means risking the contract? If they lose a ♣ at some point the Opponents can get into ♠ and East will go down. I don't think they will take the chance.

So on this hand it really doesn't matter what East opens. They will get to 3NT and take their 9 tricks.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!

Bidding Question

Hi Heidi,

How should South, with 9 winning tricks and two singletons, open the bidding? What should North, who has the A♣, respond?

All vulnerable, W is dealer:

	North ♠KJT8 ♥874 ♦7652 ♣A2
West ♠9765432 ♥932 ♦ ♣T73		East ♠A ♥KQJT65 ♦9 ♣KQ864
	South ♠Q ♥A ♦AKQJT843 ♣J95

N	E	S	W
			Pass
Pass	1♥	???

Heidi's Answer

So I take it this is matchpoints. This would make a big difference to me. So I will assume matchpoints when answering the question.

First of all South will NOT be able to open the bidding. East already did that. So now South is overcalling.

What should South overcall?

Here is where it makes the difference. At matchpoints I would try just bidding 3NT.

Crazy with two singletons I know.

But how many tricks will I take when my LHO leads a ♥?

9 at least even if Partner has NOTHING.

That's all I need.

If this were a team game and I wanted to be a little safer I would just bid 5♦ and hope Partner can cover off a couple of losers. Here they do so it all works out.

I think regardless of what South bids -- 3NT or 5♦ -- North will just "Pass". You can make 12 tricks in ♦ on any lead but a ♣ but that's a little lucky.

Do I think East will allow South to play in 3NT? Probably not. Probably East will bid 4♣. Now, as South, I will just bid 5♦.