Hand 7 -- 1NT vs 1 Spade

This is chapter 7 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the seventh hand I generated:

	North ♠74 ♥J76 ♦762 ♣K8742
West ♠KQ9 ♥82 ♦QT843 ♣QJT		East ♠852 ♥AK953 ♦K95 ♣65
	South ♠AJT63 ♥QT4 ♦AJ ♣A93

Dealer is South and everyone is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
2♥ makes by E/W
1NT can make by E/W
2♦ makes by E/W
1♠ makes by N/S
2♣ makes by N/S

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT, West will pass and North will pass. Will East come in?

If East does not come to then South will play in 1NT and go down.

If South opens 1♠, again West and North will pass. Will East come in?

If East does not come to then South will play in 1♠ and make.

What if East decides to come in?

What happens then?

If South has opened 1NT and East makes a bid to show a single suited hand then North will probably want to show their ♠ suit. I'm sure they will do that on the other hands (sometimes they need to!) so now they are going to because 2♠ will not make.

If South has opened 1♠ and East bids 2♥ then South no longer needs to show their ♠ suit. They should wait and see if North can raise. (North can't.)

So this one I think is better to open 1♠ because if East does not bid you are better off playing in ♠ and if East does bid you won't need to show your suit (and get too high!) because you already have shown it.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!