Hand 18 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 18 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the eighteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠J642 ♥K82 ♦J3 ♣Q743
West ♠9853 ♥J64 ♦T864 ♣82		East ♠AKQT7 ♥75 ♦A95 ♣KJ5
	South ♠ ♥AQT93 ♦KQ72 ♣AT96

Dealer is East and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
5♥ can make by N
4♥ can make by S
4♣ can make by N/S
2NT can make by N

Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think South will find a bid. But what?

They have a very strong hand -- do they start with a Double?

With a void perhaps not.

Let's say South bids their ♥ suit. Will North raise? Unlikely.

However I did say that East would come in with their suit if it was good. So East will now bid 2♠.

South will probably now bid a minor.

North will go back to the ♥ suit but will they bid game?

If North doesn't bid game will South?

Maybe but maybe not. North has not shown ANY encouragement.

What happens if North opens 1♠?

South could overcall 2♥. North will raise to 3♥ and South will bid the game knowing Partner has a little bit of something.

How does ♥ do realistically?

I think it will do just fine. East has opened the bidding and is likely to have the K♣ so Declarer just has to get themselves to Dummy and play the Q♣. East can cover with the K♣ but Declarer will win the A♣ and let the Defence have their J♣. One ♣ loser.

However they do have to be worried about knocking out the A♦ in addition to the ♣. If Declarer takes out trump they could lose control. But since East is always getting in that J♠ in Dummy will help.

So I am going to give 1NT the win because it is easier for N/S to get to game if East opens the bidding 1♠.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!