Hand 15 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 15 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the fifteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠Q9 ♥T ♦J42 ♣AJ98654
West ♠42 ♥J6532 ♦75 ♣QT32		East ♠AK53 ♥KQ74 ♦QT863 ♣
	South ♠JT876 ♥A98 ♦AK9 ♣K7

Dealer is South and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3♠ can make by N
3♥ can make by E/W
4♣ can make by N/S
1NT can make by N/S
1♠ can make by S
1♦ can make by N/S

Analysis

If South opens up 1NT I think West will "Pass" and North might find a way to show their ♣ suit.

Standard American this would probably be a 3♣ bid showing an invitational hand with at least six ♣.

I think East at these colours (vulnerability) will chance a Double (take out).

South will "Pass" and West will bid 3♥.

Will North bid again? Probably not. Their suit isn't that great.

If South opens 1NT and North is feeling a little feisty they might even bid 3NT hoping their ♣ suit runs. It doesn't and South will go down a few on a ♥ lead. North might feel a little sheepish with that bid but they shouldn't. They took a chance and it just didn't work out. (I would have tried it.)

What if North opens 1♠?

West will "Pass". North will bid 1NT since they do not have the values to bid a suit at the 2 level.

What will East do? Here it is not so clear however given the state of 2 level overcalls these days I feel confident that East will overcall 2♦ with this hand.

South will "Pass" and so will West.

North might just "Pass" and let them play there. This would be good for N/S since East will go down a couple of tricks. (This is why you should have a good suit to overcall kids!)

North might bid 3♣ but with three losing ♦ and no assurance South has any ♣ at all they probably won't.

So I think 1♠ will be the best possible opening bid for N/S. They are less likely to get into trouble and it is more likely the Opponent's do.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!