Hand 14 - 1NT vs 1 Major

This is chapter 14 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the Fourteenth hand I generated:

	North ♠QJ4 ♥T876 ♦T43 ♣J86
West ♠7 ♥42 ♦AQ865 ♣AT952		East ♠T9832 ♥AKQ ♦KJ ♣Q43
	South ♠AK65 ♥J953 ♦972 ♣K7

Dealer is East and no one is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make by E/W
5♦ can make by E/W
5♣ can make by E/W
3♠ can make by E/W
2♥ can make by E/W

Analysis

If East opens up 1NT I think West will either bid 3NT or if they have ways to show 5-5 in the minors they will do that.

East will bid 3NT because they don't care about the minors.

So they will end up in 3NT.

If East opens up 1♠ it now depends on what system the partnership plays.

Playing Standard American West will bid 2♦. East can now bid 3NT since they know they have the values for game. West will "Pass".

Playing 2/1 Game Forcing over 1♠ West will be forced to bid 1NT. Which would be forcing.

East would rebid 2♣.

West would do something -- maybe 3♣ or even something stronger.

Either way East will bid 3NT.

So I think all roads lead to 3NT.

Which will make easily.

I don't even think the lead will matter. You won't get a ♠ lead if East opens 1♠ but East has 9 tricks. Should they try for a tenth if it means risking the contract? If they lose a ♣ at some point the Opponents can get into ♠ and East will go down. I don't think they will take the chance.

So on this hand it really doesn't matter what East opens. They will get to 3NT and take their 9 tricks.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!