Hand 3 - 1NT or 1 Spade?

This is chapter 3 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the third hand I generated:

	North ♠Q43 ♥8 ♦AJ9432 ♣QT3
West ♠AJ62 ♥QT3 ♦K7 ♣A842		East ♠5 ♥J97652 ♦T86 ♣J65
	South ♠KT987 ♥AK4 ♦Q5 ♣K97

Dealer is South and E/W are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make
4♠ makes

Analysis

If South opens 1NT the partnership is unlikely to find their ♠ fit. North will probably get the partnership to game but most players don't have the tools to ask if their Partner has a five card major when they open 1NT.

If South opens 1♠, North might show a three card limit raise and South will certainly accept the game try with their 15 HCP.

If North instead forces to game all is good.

4♠ (420) scores better than 3NT (400).

So this hand is better to open 1♠.