Hand 2 - 1NT or 1 Spade?

This is chapter 2 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the second hand I generated:

	North ♠AT63 ♥83 ♦T86 ♣T965
West ♠J2 ♥AT954 ♦K2 ♣J743		East ♠Q9854 ♥KQJ ♦AQ4 ♣K8
	South ♠K7 ♥762 ♦J9753 ♣AQ2

Dealer is East and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make
3♥ makes

Analysis

If East opens 1NT West will transfer to their ♥ suit and then bid 2NT to invite game.

East will accept the game try since they have 17 HCP and will no doubt bid 4♥ since they have a ♥ fit.

4♥ can go down.

You can see right away the Opponents can take two ♠ tricks and two ♣ tricks. Even if they don't take them right away it will be hard for East to get enough winners.

3NT will be much easier to make. Declarer has 8 tricks right off the top and they can easily set up a 9th trick in ♠.

If East opens 1♠ then it will be hard for them to find their ♥ fit. West is too weak to bid 2♥ so they must bid 1NT. East with 17 HCP might just invite with 2NT now. West will probably just raise to 3NT.

So this one I think is better to open 1♠ because you don't find the 5-3 ♥ fit which doesn't make.