Should you open 1 of a major or 1NT with a five card major and 15 to 17 HCP? That is the question that I am seeking an answer to.

Skip to the table!

After looking at some hands I realized that opening 1♠ was a little bit different from opening up 1♥ so I split them into two different groups:
1♠ vs 1NT
1♥ vs 1NT

How will I analyze this?

I am starting by looking at 64 random hands with 15 to 17 HCP and five ♠ and 3-2-2 distribution in the other suits. I generated the hands by using this website: http://playbridge.com/

You can specify HCP and also number of cards in the suits among other things.

So I set the hand generator to create 64 hands (the most you can do) with five ♠, two or three ♥, two or three ♦, two or three ♣ and 15 to 17 HCP.

Double Dummy?

Obviously I won't know what will happen at the table. Contracts that should go down sometimes make. Contracts that should make sometimes go down. But I have to assume best play for results. Therefore the results I am looking are Double Dummy results. Double Dummy results can be a little tricky. Double Dummy results assume that you know what ALL four hands are and play accordingly. We don't get to do that. I will look at some to make sure the Double Dummy forecast is somewhat accurate though. If you have to drop a singleton King offside to make the contract I assume you will go down.

On the hands that I am unsure of I give to my students. If they can make the contract I assume that you will. If they can defeat a contract I assume that you will.

64 Hands?

Will 64 Hands give a definitive answer?

No. But it's a start. Eventually I hope to add more and more hands. But depending on how many hands go one way it might be good enough for me. If on all 64 hands it is better to open 1♠ then I might be convinced. If it is better to open 1♠ on 39 of them I will want to investigate a bit more.

How will Opener show their values if they open 1♠?

Good question. I need to be consistent.

If they have 15 or 16 HCP I will just have them "Pass" if Responder responds 1NT. They might miss a few games if Responder has 9 or 10 HCP but they will also stay low if Responder has 6 to 8 HCP. This is not ideal but it is the easiest thing to do. This is where the people playing a forcing 1NT bid might get to a better spot. You could rebid a lower ranking three card suit but I'm going to assume you will NOT do that. That's a little complicated for my audience.

I will have them playing Standard American -- not 2/1 Game Forcing. Again a little complicated for my audience.

If they can open 1NT and are able to then come back in later to bid their suit I will assume they will do so if they have a GOOD suit. But I won't assume they will bid if they have a bad suit.

If they have 17 HCP I will just have them invite game with 2NT if Responder responds 1NT. They might get a little high because this does show 18 or 19 HCP but you do have that five card suit so you should be safe most of the time.

This is the table that will hold all the results.

Summary - Open 1NT or 1♠?

Number of Hands Studied	Which wins?	Percentage
25	1♠ - 12 1NT - 6 Doesn't Matter - 7	1♠ - 48.0% 1NT - 24.0% Doesn't Matter - 28.0%

Hands

Analysis

Verdict

Hand 1

Dealer: North None Vul	North ♠AQ754 ♥J76 ♦AQ ♣K42
West ♠KJ983 ♥52 ♦T82 ♣J86		East ♠T ♥AKQT83 ♦J653 ♣T3
	South ♠62 ♥94 ♦K974 ♣AQ975	NS 4♣ NS 2♠ NS 1NT NS 1♦

Things do not work out well for N/S on this hand. They need East to come in with their ♥ suit and rescue them. That way East goes down in their contract rather than North. I thought East would come in over 1♠ for sure but await developments if North opened 1NT. However it seems that about the same number of people came into the bidding over both bids. So therefore it really doesn't matter what North opens, East will come in and rescue them.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 1

Doesn't Matter

Hand 2

Dealer: East N/S Vul	North ♠AT63 ♥83 ♦T86 ♣T965
West ♠J2 ♥AT954 ♦K2 ♣J743		East ♠Q9854 ♥KQJ ♦AQ4 ♣K8
	South ♠K7 ♥762 ♦J9753 ♣AQ2	EW 3NT EW 3♥ EW 2♠ EW 2♣ EW 1♦

This is a tough one. I think 3NT will be easier to play and Double Dummy there are only 9 tricks available in both 3NT and 4♥. So the ♥ game can go down. If East opens 1NT they will find their fit and play in 4♥. If East opens 1♠ it is tougher to find their ♥ fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 2

1♠

Hand 3

Dealer: South E/W Vul	North ♠Q43 ♥8 ♦AJ9432 ♣QT3
West ♠AJ62 ♥QT3 ♦K7 ♣A842		East ♠5 ♥J97652 ♦T86 ♣J65
	South ♠KT987 ♥AK4 ♦Q5 ♣K97	NS 4♠ NS 3NT NS 3♦ NS 2♣ EW 1♥

If South opens 1NT most people don't have the tools to find their ♠ fit. both 3NT and 4♠ make with no overtricks. So 4♠ will score better.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 3

1♠

Hand 4

Dealer: West Both Vul	North ♠82 ♥KJ76 ♦QT6 ♣KT63
West ♠KQT65 ♥AT3 ♦A4 ♣QJ9		East ♠J973 ♥Q985 ♦53 ♣852
	South ♠A4 ♥42 ♦KJ9872 ♣A74	EW 2♠ NS 3♦ NS 3♣ NS 1NT EW 1♥

I feel that West can always show their ♠ suit IF South competes over 1NT. But what if South does not? Then it is better to open 1♠.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 4

1♠

Hand 5

Dealer: North N/S Vul	North ♠AK752 ♥Q6 ♦K98 ♣QJ2
West ♠T64 ♥KT543 ♦J ♣A763		East ♠J983 ♥A9 ♦Q32 ♣K854
	South ♠Q ♥J872 ♦AT7654 ♣T9	NS 3NT NS 2♦ NS 1♠ EW 1♣

Easier to get to 3NT if North opens 1NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 5

1NT

Hand 6

Dealer: East E/W Vul	North ♠4 ♥AJT5 ♦K9765 ♣Q76
West ♠7653 ♥862 ♦4 ♣KJ984		East ♠KQJ92 ♥KQ9 ♦AJ8 ♣T5
	South ♠AT8 ♥743 ♦QT32 ♣A32	EW 3♠ EW 3♦ EW 2♣ NS 1NT NS 1♥

♠ plays better.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 6

1♠

Hand 7

Dealer: South Both Vul	North ♠74 ♥J76 ♦762 ♣K8742
West ♠KQ9 ♥82 ♦QT843 ♣QJT		East ♠852 ♥AK953 ♦K95 ♣65
	South ♠AJT63 ♥QT4 ♦AJ ♣A93	EW 2♥ EW 1NT EW 2♦ NS 1♠ NS 2♣

Better to open 1♠ because ♠ plays better if the Opponents don't come in and if they do come in you won't get too high.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 7

1♠

Hand 8

Dealer: West None Vul	North ♠84 ♥A97532 ♦QJ ♣963
West ♠AJ973 ♥KQ ♦AK3 ♣752		East ♠Q2 ♥J864 ♦T9865 ♣AJ
	South ♠KT65 ♥T ♦742 ♣KQT84	EW 4NT EW 5♦ EW 3♠ EW 2♥ EW 1♣

I think either opening bid will get the partnership to 3NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 8

Doesn't Matter

Hand 9

Dealer: North E/W Vul	North ♠KQT93 ♥AJ6 ♦KT ♣QJ3
West ♠AJ85 ♥KQT ♦A87 ♣864		East ♠6 ♥9432 ♦J943 ♣KT92
	South ♠742 ♥875 ♦Q652 ♣A75	NS 2♠ NS 1NT

I think opening 1NT will stop the partnership from getting too high.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 9

1NT

Hand 10

Dealer: East Both Vul	North ♠Q ♥Q87 ♦K42 ♣QJT765
West ♠T832 ♥K53 ♦J653 ♣92		East ♠AKJ95 ♥642 ♦AT7 ♣A4
	South ♠764 ♥AJT9 ♦Q98 ♣K83	EW 3♠ EW 2♦ EW 1NT NS 3♣ NS 2♥

I think opening 1♠ is better. That allows you to find the major suit fit without relying on the Opponents to come in and help you along.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 10

1♠

Hand 11

Dealer: South None Vul	North ♠T2 ♥KJ864 ♦Q9 ♣A876
West ♠654 ♥5 ♦JT432 ♣JT43		East ♠QJ3 ♥Q972 ♦A65 ♣Q95
	South ♠AK987 ♥AT3 ♦K87 ♣K2	N 5NT NS 5♠ NS 5♥ S 4NT

I think opening 1♠ is better. It either doesn't matter what you open OR bidding 1♠ allows you to play the NT from a better side.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 11

1♠

Hand 12

Dealer: West NS Vul	North ♠2 ♥Q42 ♦AQ9 ♣AKT743
West ♠AQ876 ♥AKT ♦J72 ♣Q5		East ♠J93 ♥J97 ♦KT8654 ♣2
	South ♠KT54 ♥8653 ♦3 ♣J986	EW 5♦ NS 4♣ EW 2♠ NS 1NT

I think opening 1NT is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 12

1NT

Hand 13

Dealer: North Both Vul	North ♠AQJ85 ♥AJ3 ♦QJT ♣52
West ♠KT73 ♥8742 ♦963 ♣84		East ♠92 ♥K9 ♦K2 ♣KQT9763
	South ♠64 ♥QT65 ♦A8754 ♣AJ	NS 6♦ NS 5♥ NS 4♠ NS 3NT

I think opening 1♠ is better. It allows the partnership to find the better fit more easily.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 13

1♠

Hand 14

Dealer: East None Vul	North ♠QJ4 ♥T876 ♦T43 ♣J86
West ♠7 ♥42 ♦AQ865 ♣AT952		East ♠T9832 ♥AKQ ♦KJ ♣Q43
	South ♠AK65 ♥J953 ♦972 ♣K7	EW 3NT EW 5♦ EW 5♣ EW 3♠ EW 2♥

I don't think it will matter what East opens. All roads lead to 3NT just in.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 14

Doesn't Matter

Hand 15

Dealer: South N/S Vul	North ♠Q9 ♥T ♦J42 ♣AJ98654
West ♠42 ♥J6532 ♦75 ♣QT32		East ♠AK53 ♥KQ74 ♦QT863 ♣
	South ♠JT876 ♥A98 ♦AK9 ♣K7	N 3♠/S 1♠ EW 3♥ NS 4♣ NS 1NT NS 1♦

I think South is better off opening 1♠. They are less likely to get into trouble and E/W are less likely to find their fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 15

1♠

Hand 16

Dealer: West E/W Vul	North ♠K2 ♥JT3 ♦JT965 ♣732
West ♠Q8743 ♥A98 ♦AQ8 ♣K4		East ♠AJT6 ♥KQ76 ♦2 ♣AQJ8
	South ♠95 ♥542 ♦K743 ♣T965	EW 7NT EW 7♠ EW 7♥ EW 7♣

I don't think it will really matter what West opens. They will easily find their ♠ fit over 1NT with Stayman.

Doesn't matter

Hand 17

Dealer: North None Vul	North ♠AKQ96 ♥QT3 ♦AJT ♣T4
West ♠73 ♥J4 ♦KQ8742 ♣J73		East ♠842 ♥AK9862 ♦5 ♣KQ8
	South ♠JT5 ♥75 ♦963 ♣A9652	NS 3♠ N 2NT S 1NT EW 1♥ EW 1♦ NS 1♣

I don't think it will really matter what North opens. If they open 1♠ they find their fit but may get to the 3 level since North might invite. If North opens up 1NT and East overcalls 2♥ I feel that the suit is so good North will now bid 2♠. Since 9 tricks are easy to take it won't even matter if they are at the 2 or 3 level.

Doesn't matter

Hand 18

Dealer: East N/S Vul	North ♠J642 ♥K82 ♦J3 ♣Q743
West ♠9853 ♥J64 ♦T864 ♣82		East ♠AKQT7 ♥75 ♦A95 ♣KJ5
	South ♠ ♥AQT93 ♦KQ72 ♣AT96	N 5♥ S 4♥ N 2NT NS 4♣

I think it will be easier for N/S to find their game if East opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1NT.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 18

1NT

Hand 19

Dealer: South E/W Vul	North ♠JT8 ♥6 ♦Q87652 ♣Q84
West ♠74 ♥A954 ♦K4 ♣AJ732		East ♠A93 ♥J8732 ♦T9 ♣K65
	South ♠KQ652 ♥KQT ♦AJ3 ♣T9	2♠ can make by N/S 2♥ can make by E/W 2♦ can make by N/S 2♣ can make by E/W

I think it will be easier for N/S to find their best spot if South opens the bidding 1♠. Therefore I am giving the win to opening 1♠.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 19

1♠

Hand 20

Dealer: West Both Vul	North ♠KQ986 ♥Q3 ♦K72 ♣T73
West ♠AJT75 ♥85 ♦AQ9 ♣A86		East ♠42 ♥AKT92 ♦JT ♣KQJ5
	South ♠3 ♥J764 ♦86543 ♣942	5NT can make by E/W 4♠ can make by W 4♥ can make by E/W 5♣ can make by E/W 3♠ can make by E 3♦ can make by E/W

I don't think it really matters what the opening bid is. E/W will get to 3NT and make the same number of tricks.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 20

Doesn't matter

Hand 21

Dealer: North N/S Vul	North ♠KQJ74 ♥J2 ♦K93 ♣AK5
West ♠A86 ♥Q3 ♦QJ75 ♣QJ72		East ♠T95 ♥K8 ♦AT42 ♣T843
	South ♠32 ♥AT97654 ♦86 ♣96	3♥ can make by N/S 2♠ can make by N/S 1NT can make by N/S 2♣ can make by E/W 1♦ can make by E/W

I think opening 1NT wins on this hand. It helps N/S get to the best contract and stay low in the bidding.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 21

1NT

Hand 22

Dealer: East E/W Vul	North ♠75 ♥KJ86 ♦AK984 ♣KJ
West ♠K962 ♥3 ♦J6 ♣Q87632		East ♠AQJ83 ♥A9 ♦T53 ♣A94
	South ♠T4 ♥QT7542 ♦Q72 ♣T5	4♠ can make by E/W 4♣ can make by E/W 1NT can make by E/W 3♥ can make by N/S 2♦ can make by N/S

I think opening 1♠ wins on this hand. It helps E/W get to the best fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 22

1♠

Hand 23

Dealer: East E/W Vul	North ♠JT ♥74 ♦QT953 ♣A764
West ♠753 ♥KJT963 ♦J6 ♣T2		East ♠KQ4 ♥852 ♦K74 ♣KJ83
	South ♠A9862 ♥AQ ♦A82 ♣Q95	3♠ can make by N/S 4♦ can make by N 2NT can make by S 3♦ can make by S 1NT can make by N 2♣ can make by N/S 1♥ can make by E/W

Doesn't really matter what South opens. The partnership will end up in 1NT and realistically both sides take 8 tricks.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 23

Doesn't matter

Hand 24

Dealer: West None Vul	North ♠KT ♥AK8 ♦653 ♣Q9875
West ♠AQJ83 ♥Q4 ♦K92 ♣K62		East ♠954 ♥JT52 ♦QJ8 ♣T43
	South ♠762 ♥9763 ♦AT74 ♣AJ	1NT can make by N/S 2♦ can make by N/S 2♣ can make by N/S 1♥ can make by N/S 1♠ can make by E/W

1♠ works best here. It allows you to get to your last making contract.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 24

1♠

Hand 25

Dealer: North E/W Vul	North ♠AJ654 ♥AJ9 ♦A3 ♣K85
West ♠ ♥T754 ♦KQ75 ♣QJT93		East ♠KQT87 ♥82 ♦J86 ♣A64
	South ♠932 ♥KQ63 ♦T942 ♣72	1♠ can make by N/S 1NT can make by E/W 2♣ can make by E/W 1♥ can make by W 1♦ can make by E/W

1NT works best here. It allows for the fact that East (or West) might come into the bidding and the Opponents will get too high OR it stops the N/S partnership from getting too high in their ♠ fit.

For details you can check out this post: Hand 25

1NT

Heidi's Bridge Blog

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Table for 1NT vs 1 of a Major

Double Dummy?

64 Hands?

How will Opener show their values if they open 1♠?

Summary - Open 1NT or 1♠?

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