Hand 18 - 1NT vs 1 of a Major (Hearts)

This is chapter 18 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♥ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♥ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the eighteenth hand I generated:

Hand 18

	North ♠J65 ♥72 ♦JT6 ♣KT954
West ♠KT7 ♥KT54 ♦K82 ♣QJ3		East ♠AQ2 ♥AQJ86 ♦Q4 ♣762
	South ♠9843 ♥93 ♦A9753 ♣A8

Dealer is East and N/S are vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make by E/W
3♥ can make by E/W
1♠ can make by E/W
1♣ can make by E/W
1♦ can make by N/S

Analysis

If East opens up 1♥ I think West will bid 3♥ invitational. Or whatever West can do to show an invitational hand with four trump.

East will raise to 4♥.



What happens if East opens 1NT?

West might bid Stayman but with a 4-3-3-3 shape should IGNORE the potential 4-4 major suit fit and just bid 3NT.

On best defence 3NT will make but 4♥ will go down. South can lead their A♣ and then a ♣ to Partner's K♣ and then trump a ♣. Plus the partnership has the A♦.

So I am going to give 1NT the win here. You have a better chance of getting to the right spot (3NT) rather than the game that goes down.

To see the table where all the hands are listed click HERE!