Hand 5 -- 1NT or 1 Spade?

This is chapter 5 in the story of my attempt to determine if it is better to open 1♠ or 1NT with 15 to 17 HCP and a five card ♠ suit.

The journey started with this post:
Later On

Here is the fifth hand I generated:

	North ♠AK752 ♥Q6 ♦K98 ♣QJ2
West ♠T64 ♥KT543 ♦J ♣A763		East ♠J983 ♥A9 ♦Q32 ♣K854
	South ♠Q ♥J872 ♦AT7654 ♣T9

Dealer is North and N/S is vulnerable.

Double Dummy:
3NT can make by N/S
1♠ makes by N/S
2♦ makes by N/S

Analysis

If North opens 1♠ then South will respond 1NT.

If they are not playing forcing NTs then North might just "Pass".

If they are playing forcing NTs then North will bid 2♣. South will probably now bid 2♦ to show a weak hand with long ♦. North might "Pass" or might raise to 3♦ because they do have a nice hand. But South will "Pass" that for sure.

If North opens 1NT South might just "Pass" with 7 HCP.

But they also might somehow show long ♦ and perhaps an invitational hand.

If they do this then North just might bid a game.

3NT can make Double Dummy.

Will they make in real life? Not Double Dummy?

I think so. It all depends on how they play the ♦ suit. North will certainly start by cashing their K♦. They should note the drop of the J♦ from West. Restricted choice says that East will have the Q♦. So North should now run the 9♦. This will win and Declarer has the tricks they need.

Since it is easier to get to the game by opening 1NT I think that is the winning bid on this hand.